I meant to write this some ago. But then again there are lots of things I meant to do some time ago. It’s fair to say about poker these days that formats never seem to live up to expectations. Because when something is right, when the dynamics are great, when the players are perfect, when the stakes are highest and the pressure is on, you just don’t want it to end. You just want it to go on and on and on. But blinds must go up. Players must gamble. This is tournament No Limit Texas Hold’em, let’s not forget.
And that’s why I await this year’s Poker Million final with excitement, cynicism, and a strong dose of reality. I am excited that something magical will happen live on TV tomorrow evening. I am cynical that four people will be left all with under 10 big blinds and the champion will be an exercise in randomness. And I am realistic about the fact that it doesn’t matter who wins the million, because the line-up is so enticing and the live TV element with hole cards so unique, that it will be great television. It has to be. So, as usual, I’m pumped out of my skin.
Let’s accept for a second that the winner is not an absolute reflection of skill and rather than handicap this table of eight, I’d rather talk about who these players are right now, and why that makes me want to watch them, why the battle promises to be so dramatic
Everything starts and ends with Gus Hansen. He’s just that exciting to watch. If the greatest thing that the devil ever did was to convince us that he doesn’t exist, then the greatest thing Gus Hansen ever did was to convince people that he’s crazy. Nothing could be further from the truth. Hansen is a lot more like Copernicus, a misunderstood genius of his time thrown in jail for heresy and then burned at the stake. Symbolically, pro poker has been burning Hansen at the stake for the last two years. His thoughts on poker are progressive to the extreme. Since he started to play, Gus has pushed the envelope between great and horrible. We know the knocks against him: he massive losses in cash games online - some call him the ultimate fish of the nosebleed stakes.
Around this time last year, I remember seeing Gus at Poker Million VIII, and though he played fine, he was clearly in poor spirits, his mind somewhere else, his smiles fleeting. This year, it was 180 degrees different. First of all, his form. Internet reports suggest Gus is actually having a winning year in 2010 in the high stakes cash games. He came into the Poker Million heats off the back of a WSOPE bracelet, his first bracelet in a tough event against one of the toughest fields of all time. But that paled in comparison to the delights that were the poker he produced in his heat.
Gus has the capacity to evolve more than any player I’ve witnessed. His aptitude for game play is that strong. And his game has evolved completely in a wild direction from how he won his three WPT titles. In places where he’d always lean to a call, now he leans towards folding. His reliance on the price, on the odds, has changed. It’s subtle, but means everything in philosophy. But Gus was right every time in the heat, his dialogue about the hands during the game a fascinating insight into his mind. In the heat, Gus pretty much destroyed David Benyamine, who was sullen and unnerved when it came to the Gus funny faces. It’s also amazing what reputation can do. Even though Gus essentially played tight, everybody still thinks he’s always at it.
The two players who I feel most prone to making fireworks with Gus are Patrik Antonius and James Bord. Patrik because he knows Gus and James because he may think he does. I look for both of these two to be getting it in light against Hansen and for him to take on a race where he has way the best of it.
Patrik Antonius is of course a fabulous character, for someone with the personality of an ice sculpture. Or, at least that’s what he wants you to think. He goes from completely uninterested to maniacally focused at the drop of a hat. He will not just believe he’s the best player at this table, he will be disdainfully positive he can play circles around the table and that the money means nothing to him. In his heat, he started off like a guy who wanted to get out as quick as possible. He gambled it up very light, and then once finding himself in the lead, ground down for the win. I’m pretty sure Patrik’s tactic is going to be play fast, get it in early, and then go for the win or head to the airport.
James Bord is the hottest player on the planet. Winning the WSOPE, the Morocco high rollers, and his Poker Million heat on the spin was no easy task. Having watched James both in the WSOPE and the Poker Million, he strikes me as a guy who is very good at keeping things simple. Flops are a whole load of hassle for him. He looks to three bet light or shove all in. It’s a pretty sound strategy, if not very pretty. The great dynamic, however is to see how he and Tony Bloom get on. It seems that James used to work for Tony, but left to strike out on his own. I’m sure there will be a lot of determination on both sides to get the better of the other.
Tony Bloom is fun to watch whenever he’s on a high pressure final, precisely because he loves it so much. Bloom eats up pressure and the idea of gambling for a million on TV is so much fun for him. I promise you he’s watched every single Poker Million heat in preparation for this final. That’s what he does. And for a guy who doesn’t play that often, he is extremely competent. However, in his heat, I was surprised by how many technical mistakes he made with a stack between 10 and 20 big blinds. The game has gotten very technical, and Tony just hasn’t kept up. I believe this will prevent him from winning the title, but I wouldn’t lay him. He’s Tony Bloom.
Which brings us to Barny Boatman. I can honestly say that I may start crying if Barny wins this thing. He just flat out deserves it more than anybody else. Talk about a man who has paid his dues. And I don’t care how it happens. I don’t care if he sucks out on everybody or gets hit in the head with the deck. C’mon, poker gods, would it really be so horrible to spare a poor thought for Barny Boatman? As for his game, Barny knows these inside and out. What I think is funny about Barny is that he refuses to succumb to what the cards give him. Every time I see him play, he pulls something out so unorthodox, so rash, so not what is recommended if you are at home or on medication that you just sit there and close your eyes. Sometimes it works, and sometimes it doesn’t. But I guarantee you that Barny will pull at least one of those out of the bag on the biggest night of his poker career.
Howard Lederer is making his second final table appearance at the Poker Million. The last time, he seemed a bit moody and put out. This time, he has been nothing but smiles, a man delighted with his station in life and poker, and quite happy to sit down and play the game. Howard is one of the smartest guys in the game, though it kills me to say it. He’s also eminently logical, sensible, and may go down in history as one of the five biggest winners in the history of poker. You could call it unfair if Howard wins this thing. But what the hey. He’s played well enough to, and he showed in his heat that he can shove it in with the best of them. My feeling about Howard, however, is that he’s far more prone to call light than to shove light. In any event, he gives the Poker Million final plenty of gravitas. A locked on cert for the Poker Hall of Fame and well deserving of that honor.
I don’t know the parachute qualifier. I do know a bit about Seth Weber, however. He's played as well, and as tough, as anybody in this tournament so far. He’s a professional online MTT’er who has solid friends in the Black Belt Poker crew from Brighton. He believes that winning the Poker Million is his destiny, his springboard to a high stakes career. He certainly has the skills for it. First time live on TV, however, we’ll see if the pressure gets to him. I fear it may, it would anybody else, but these Poker Million’s are historically not where champions meet, but where champions are made.