Continued from #3...
History: You’ve been playing six-handed $0.25/0.50 No Limit Hold’em for a while now, but the table has lost some players meaning there are only three players left: yourself, a regular short stack (Villain #1), and Villain #2 from the last ‘Your Move’. On that hand, he doubled up with Qs-Ts for the flopped flush.
Villain #1: 16/14, 14% 3b, 1,127 hands
Villain #2: 27/13, 3% 3b, 52% fold to cb, 11% check-raise, 157 hands
Seat 3: Villain #2 (BB): $114
Seat 4: Hero (BTN): $84
Seat 5: Villain #1 (SB) $11
Dealt to Hero [As-9h]
What’s Your Move? If you make a standard raise and Villain #1 pushes, what range of hands would you be calling with?
Mike Shaw says:
“Three up, A-9 is probably good and worth a raise. The other players should be loosening up their ranges as well, so I would probably lean towards making a four times the big blind raise. If Villain #1 pushes, I would be putting him on a range of up to 20 percent which, according to PokerStove, gives us 46 percent equity against a call of nearly 2:1, so is an easy call.”
Snoopy says:
“This is a standard raise three-handed; I’d probably just make it three times the big blind unless I have reason to think they’ll call bigger raises light or that Villain #1 is going to push any two. Maybe even less as the big blind is so short stacked, and if Villain #2 calls, we can play small ball in position.
Maths give us a pretty good idea as to how wide we should be calling, but we can’t rely too heavily on PokerStove and HUD stats as the table is only three-handed and we also need to take into account game-flow and table dynamics. Although he’s a regular short stscker, the 14 percent three-bet stat suggests that he’s always looking for spots to come over the top, and I think this is a good opportunity for him to do so. Therefore, I’d happily make the call expecting to be ahead (excluding coin flips) more often that not.”
Hero raises to [$1.75]
Villain #1 folds
Villain #2 calls
Pot = $3.75, Hero = $82.25, Villain #2 = $112.25
** Dealing Flop ** [9d-2c-5c]
Villain #2 checks
What’s your Move? If you bet, are you betting for value, or protecting your hand?
Mike Shaw says:
“It is almost certain I am ahead here (Poker Stove gives me 70 percent over his likely range), but there are plenty of cards that can come on the turn that could hit my opponent’s hand. As my opponent also seems to have a preference for playing any two suited, another club would worry me and in any case could kill the action. I would therefore be betting out here, mainly to protect my hand and charge any draws. Taking the pot now is not a disaster, so I would make a pot-sized bet.”
Snoopy says:
“I would definitely be betting here, not just to protect my hand, but also to get value from all the draws he could have, and also the pocket pairs, which could easily shut down on a high card turn. I don’t see any benefit in checking, especially because he calls half his opponents’ continuation bets and we are ahead of his range a high percentage of time. I’d bet at least three quarters of the pot and hope he calls.”
Hero bets [$3.25]
Villain raises to [$6.50]
What’s your move? Is the min check-raise a move you make when playing cash?
Mike Shaw says:
“The problem with min-raising in cash is that you are giving your opponents good odds to call on any kind of draw. It can often cause confusion in your opponents as min-raise implies you have hit your monster hand and want to be called with anything, but, of course, it reopens the betting for a three-bet against you, which may not be something you wanted. You therefore need to be clear in your own mind about what you are trying to achieve by min-raising, and be sure the opponent will react in the way you want him to.
In this case, Villain seems no stranger to check-raising and we have history together as well. Last time he waited until the turn before pushing, so what's his story here: two pair seems a bit far fetched, but could be trips? He may also be slow playing an overpair, but not giving much credit as why would he not reraise preflop? Could he be making a move with flush/straight draw or air based on our previous? How does he want us to respond to his min-raise?
Folding seems a bit nitty at this stage. Calling is an option, but doesn't help define our hand, and what if a scare card come on the turn? Reraising is therefore my preference here as three up you should be more aggressive. It's a higher variance option, but I am having trouble believing I am behind right now. The pot is currently $13.50, so I would reraise another $8.00, giving a pot of $32.75 if he calls and with the intention of betting the pot on the turn.”
Snoopy says:
“I come across min check-raises a lot at the lower levels, and determining the strength of your opponent’s hand in these situations is very player dependent. Although he doesn’t appear to three-bet often, I would still expect him to three-bet an overpair three-handed. He might be trapping, but even then, I would expect him to lead a lot of the time, or to make a larger check-raise in order to protect his hand. Sets are certainly possible, but it’s unlikely that he has nines as he didn’t three-bet preflop, and also we have a nine ourselves. He could well have deuces or fives, but even then, he may just check-call if we think back to how he played the flopped flush in the last hand. However, his hand isn’t quite as strong, and also stacks are deeper, so we can’t discount these holdings.
A drawing hand is highly feasible, and a play I witness a lot. Not just a flush draw, but also hands like 4-3 or A-4. Given this, the possibility that he has a weaker nine or is making a bad play with a small pocket pair, and his high check-raise percentage (although only over a small sample of hands), there’s no way I’m folding. The only question is whether to raise or not. The benefits are, of course, protecting you hand from overcards and extracting value from a draw, but these may be outweighed by the fact that he could still push with a draw and force us to fold, or just fold out a lot of weaker hands that may have bluffed the turn. I’m therefore more inclined to flat call and reassess dependent on the turn card.
Min-raising is not something I’d particularly advocate, although it can be useful in extracting value from bad players, and confusing good players. Use sparingly would be my advice.”
Hero calls.
Pot = $10.25, Hero = $75.75, Villain #2 = $105.75
** Dealing Turn ** [Ad]
Villain moves all in for [$105.75]
What’s your move? Are there any other stats here that you would consider examining before making your decision?
Mike Shaw says:
“Our hand has improved but hasn't really changed much against Villain’s likely holdings. We have not defined our hand on the flop so are a little in the dark, but against trips we are still behind and we're still beating air, overcards, etc. We now beat an overpair (except A-A of course) and Villain may have picked up a hand with A-x. His push of effective 150 big blinds into a 20 big blind pot seems a bit over aggressive if he wants to win our stack and probably indicates either air or a monster.
My feeling is that Villain has hit the flop in some way, but wants to take the pot down now, so would be putting him on something like : 2-2, 5-5, 7-7+, A-9+, K-9, Q-9, J-9, T9. Against most of these hands I am ahead (86 percent according to PokerStove) and there are less likely holdings such as air or flush draw he could be on, so would likely call here.”
Snoopy says:
“Ugh. This is where I need my time bank. OK, let’s assume I don’t have PokerStove at hand; what would I do? Well, obviously, his range includes 9-9, 2-2, 5-5, but I also think we should be throwing in two pair hands too: A-5, A-2, A-9, 5-2s, 9-5s. Although I think he’d bet a more customary amount with most drawing hands, I think there are a few which he may push such as Ac-9c, 4c-3c, 7c-6c, Ac-4c, Ac-3c. I don’t think he’s making this move with a weaker nine or turning a small pair into a buff, and he’s definitely not pushing total air unless he's taken a line of coke since the last hand.
The one thing that worries me is that the all-in is so huge, and judging by his stats (his three-bet percentage, calling half of c-bets, etc), he seems like a guy who calls to hit and then sticks his money in, rather than a player who would mess around and want to chuck so much money in with a marginal hand. However, at the same time, it may be a bet that says, ‘I have a good hand that just improved, but I don’t want to face an awkward decision out of position on a blank river, so I’ll just ship it in now and if you call, I still have outs.’
However, the line is so odd, and there are enough big draw hands out there that I might make the call, but it’s tough, especially as he only recently won those chips and shouldn’t be that eager to dump them back.
Mike Shaw and Snoopy both successfully completed the recent Grading process. If you would like to ask them a question or have query about the hand, then please leave your feedback in the comments’ box below.