Making the Grade: 50NL #3
29 April 2010
Blue Belts Simon Mairs and Owen Robinson take us through the next hand of ‘Making the Grade’.
Owen Robinson

Continued from #2...

History:
We’ve playing $0.25/0.50 six-handed No Limit Hold’em for well over an hour now and have played two major hands. Villain #1 has just taken that seat of the villain from the last article, coming in for $0.50 rather than waiting one hand for the big blind. Villain #2 is also new to the table, although we do have stats over 105 hands of 27/13. He’s not a mug, but does tend to limp a little too much.

Seat 1: BB: $17
Seat 2: Villain #1 (UTG): $25
Seat 3: Villain #2 (UTG+1): $50
Seat 4: Hero (CO): $107
Seat 5: BTN $10
Seat 6: SB: $91

Dealt to Hero [Ac-Js]

Villain #1 checks
Villain #2 calls

What’s Your Move? What is your range for isolating here and how much difference does UTG+1 limping as well make to the situation?

Simon Mairs says:

“I'm happy to isolate with A-Jo here. I'm probably going to be isolating pretty wide given the circumstances, probably any hand I was willing to raise the pot unopened with. Villain #2’s limp is not concerning me overly, I'm guessing his range is pretty wide in this spot, and I expect them to fold a fair amount preflop if Villain #1 folds, or often give it up to any continuation bet on the flop. I’m happy for Villain #1 to call, they are likely to be fairly poor.”

Owen Robinson says:

“My range for isolating range is pretty wide here and A-J off is most definitely in it. I would raise 8-8 plus, all Broadways, and some fairly raggy aces. Obviously, Villain #1's range is any two and Villain #2's limp looks super weak to me. My initial thought would be that it is unlikely for him to limp a big hand to set up a limp reraise and would estimate his range to be 2-2 to 9-9, suited connectors 5-6 to Q-J, suited cces up to maybe A-T. I would be conscious of the fact that this looks like a great spot to isolate but in general I would expect a call from Villain #2 and for him to check-fold most flops to a continuation bet. Easy money, right?”

Hero raises to [$2.50]
BTN folds
SB folds
Villain #1 calls
Villain #2 calls

Pot = $8.25, Hero = $104.50, Villain #1 = $22.50, Villain #2 = $47.50

** Dealing Flop ** [As-8s-4s]

Villain #1 bets [$5]
Villain #2 calls

What’s your move? Which player are you most concerned about?

Simon Mairs says:

“I'm not overly happy with our hand right now. We could certainly still be best, but maybe not, and I would be fairly sure our flush draw is no good (certainly it has no implied odds other than reverse). Villain #1's donk into this board is rarely a bluff, he's not leading into an ace high flush board with two players including the PFR without a fair amount of equity in the pot. He has minimum A-x, probably with a spade.

Villain #1 may also have a low flush also or two pair / a set. Villain #2 knows this, and also has a hand, either a pair plus draw, Ks-x or the king or queen high flush. They may even have two pair or a set and want to see a turn. I'm just about leaning towards folding, there's just a lot of combos where we are behind to one and have a worse draw than the other, but I don't mind calling as it's so cheap. If we call we are going to have to fold to any more action on the turn, which seems likely.

Raising here is really not good in my opinion. I'm probably most concerned by Villain #2, they are a solid player and still here when squeezed on this dangerous board.

Owen Robinson says:

“A fold is out of the question as we have hit this flop pretty hard, considering the ranges we have assigned our opponents. Villain #1 has led into two people which looks strong but we would also have to consider that he posted the blind, and just check called when raised preflop. I would think it unlikely that he has a better ace than us and would have thought that he would either have open raised or check-raised A-Q to A-K. He could have A-8 or A-4 but I think most likely he shows up with a weaker ace or 8-7, 9-8 type hands with one spade.

Villain #2's call looks to me as though he has either a singleton Broadway spade, has flopped a flush, or, again, possibly a weak ace that he is floundering with and is unsure what to do. I think that non-flush hands that beat us are likely to raise, ie sets of eights, or fours, or the previously mentioned two pair hands. If he does have a small flush, I would expect him to raise some percentage of the time to avoid another spade rolling off on the turn and counterfeiting him but he will also slow play some percentage.

Honestly, I think I would raise here as we have good equity in pot and are only behind to quite a select few hands, many of which we have redraw outs to. I make it $20 to go and look to get it in.”

Hero calls

Pot = $23.25, Hero = $99.50, Villain #1 = $17.50, Villain #2 = $42.50

** Dealing Turn ** [Kd]

Villain #1 checks
Villain #2 checks

What’s your move? Should we play pot control, or should we bet to avoid giving away a free card?


Simon Mairs says:

“I'm surprised at the checks here, but things are definitely looking up. It feels like we have the best hand now, but pot size is an issue, as we'll be getting a great price to call if only one of the villains shoves over us. It feels like Villain #1 has A-x maybe with a low spade, and Villain #2 has the king of spades (or vice versa). That means Villain #2 just picked up a pair (two pair is very unlikely), and now has a lot of outs to beat us. I don't see Villain #2 flat calling the flop then checking the turn with any strong holdings.

If Villain #2 has the flush, they have to want to get some money in the pot, as we are very likely to check behind here. I'm therefore betting the turn, planning to call either players’ shove, as I feel a lot of players are going to go for the check-raise shove here with the king of spades, knowing they are behind to our A-x, but thinking we'll fold all but an unlikely A-K, or have a lot of outs if we don’t. If both shove, I fold, we’re very unlikely to be beating both, even getting a great price, and our draw is unlikely to be good also.”

Owen Robinson says:


“On this occasion, that king is a relative blank to me, given that we hadn't assigned many kings to much of our opponents range. I don't see this as having changed the lead in the hand, so we are either still ahead, or still behind. Given the way that we played the flop, I think that we could possibly check back some percentage but with two opponents in the hand I favour a bet to avoid giving away a free card. I would bet maybe $13 expecting it to be folded out the majority of the time.”

Hero bets [$17.50]
Villain #1 folds
Villain #2 raises to [$42.50] and is all in

What’s your move?


Simon Mairs says:


“I call Villain #2's shove. I just think king of spades hands are such a large part of his range here, and we have some equity against everything else other than the nuts / second nuts (and I think they might raise Ks-Qs, Ks-Ts, Qs-Ts preflop) and Ax-Ks, again, extremely unlikely.

I'm not super happy with this spo,t however, it's pretty marginal in my opinion, and spots like this are another reason why a conservative fold on the flop might have been best.”

Owen Robinson says:

“When we are check-raised here, I have to think that we are cooked because I do not see check-raise bluffs on the turn hardly ever at these stakes. There are quite few credible pair and a draw hands, semi-bluff spots, and we assumed earlier that most sets and two pairs would have put action in before now.

I fold, hating life and wishing I had got it in on the flop when any mistake we made getting it in was likely to be less pronounced than on the turn.”

Read #4...

Simon Mairs and Owen Robinson are both sponsored players for Black Belt Poker after finishing in the top four in the Grading and earning Blue Belt status. If you would like to ask them a question or have query about the hand, then please leave your feedback in the comments’ box below.

2
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think this is
the nuts!
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Martin 'MJR719' Rice posted on 29 Apr, 4:21pm
Sweet - love the contrasting views. I think I maybe tend to lean towards raising flop as well. Think we are ahead of both their ranges, and Im pretty happy to get it in vs worse A's and bad draws.

I agree w/ Simon about the turn though and do think it is a call. There are too many pair draw hands that will want to get it in here.
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Rob Jarrett-Smith posted on 30 Apr, 9:31am
Good article and an interesting hand