Continued from #1...
History: The game is still $0.25/0.50 six-handed No Limit Hold’em and you've now been at the table for a few orbits, playing pretty tight thus far. In Hand #1, you called the river, but lost out to a K-9o for two pair. Today's villain is running at 27/19, 5% check-raise, 4% 3-bet. He has been relatively active, building his stack up with continuation bets, one reaching the turn. We have yet to see him turn over a hand.
Seat 1: CO: $9
Seat 2: Villain (SB): $52
Seat 3: BB: $94
Seat 4: Hero (UTG): $50
Seat 6: HJ: $71
Dealt to Hero [Kh-Js]
What’s your move? Do you ever fold this hand UTG?
Gerard Harraghy says:
“Raise to $1.50. I’m raising or folding my entire range here and, five-handed, K-J is almost always a raise. I may consider folding it in certain situations, such as if I’m at a particularly loose table as I don’t want to be playing K-J in a multiway pot out of position, and also if it’s a table with lots of three-betting we’re almost always going to have to fold it to a three-bet.”
John Hayes says:
“I’m not terribly excited about the hand when I don’t have much info to go on about the rest of the table. If I were being ultra-disciplined, I would happily fold it and wait to pick up more information and a later spot before trying to make a hand out of K-J off. But for the sake of argument, let’s go with an opening raise and see what develops...”
Hero raises to [$1.75]
HJ folds
CO folds
Villain calls
BB folds
Pot = $4, Hero = $48.25, Villain = $50.25
** Dealing Flop ** [Qc-Tc-4d]
Villain checks
What’s your move? If he calls, will you fire a blank turn or give up?
Gerard Harraghy says:
“I fire my standard continuation bet of about half pot so $2.00. It keeps the pot manageable while also making sure I remain in control. I may check it back a small percentage of the time with the intention of firing a delayed continuation bet on the turn if checked to again. Once I bet the flop I’ll be double barrelling all blank turns if checked to again.”
John Hayes says:
“Having decided to try and make a hand out of this holding, then this is a pretty decent flop for me. It has the cards that my raise would represent and presents me with an open-ender. If I have a decent piece of this with A-Q then I would be defending the suited flop and so I will go ahead and bet that way with a $3 continuation bet.
In position I will fire again on pretty much any turn continuing to represent a very believable hand if I am just flat called here.”
Hero bets [$3]
Villain raises to [$8.75]
What’s your move? What stats would your opponent require for you to fold the hand on the flop?
Gerard Harraghy says:
“I think Villain is probably check-raising here with Q-T, 4-4, A-Q (assuming he doesn’t three-bet this preflop), K-Q , Ac-4c, J-9, and K-J, along with most other flush draws and possibly even A-J if he has the ace of clubs. If we shove now we can prob fold out all draws (except combo hands such as Ac4c, KcJc or Jc9c) but we will definitely get called by Q-T, 4-4 and probably also by A-Q and K-Q, so we get a fold close to half of the time and still have about 33 percent equity if called. Having said that, I do think we're probably slightly better off just flatting the check-raise and trying to take him off all of his draws if the turn and river brick.”
John Hayes says:
“A check-raise here from the small blind as the only caller and with an active profile doesn’t worry me too much (though I could certainly feel more comfortable). I don’t have enough feel for him to want to fire back to confirm that I really do have the best hand and get him to fold (though it certainly runs through my mind as an idea). Equally, he would need to be far tighter and straightforward for me to be convinced that I am in trouble here and pass it. I will call.”
Hero calls.
Pot = $21.50, Hero = $39.50, Villain = $41.50
** Dealing Turn ** [9s]
Villain bets [$0.50]
What’s your move? What is your general response to minimum bets?
Gerard Harraghy says:
“Generally I take the minimum lead to be weak and probably attempting to buy a cheap card for a draw. We’ve got the nuts at the minute so obviously we want to get some money in the middle and therefore a raise is definitely the correct option, although the stack sizes make choosing a nice bet size a little bit awkward, I think somewhere around $15 is OK as it gives us a half pot sized bet for the river, although we are just about giving the villain the correct implied odds for a flush draw (assuming he feels we are committed to calling all club rivers).”
John Hayes says:
“So the minimum bet is either a very bad attempt to get to see another card for nothing, a genuine mis-click in the excitement of the moment, or an attempt to put me off-guard with something weird looking. Maybe he is worried that I have exactly what I have and wants to give me an opportunity to make a statement while getting me confused as to his intentions so that I make a fairly clear statement of the hand I am holding.
Either way, I have the temporary nuts and don’t want to be losing out with jacks, kings, clubs, or anything pairing. The other thing the minimum bet has left open for him is the scare card bluff on the end where he can make any of these cards look like just the thing he was hoping to get to see cheaply.
So given all of that, I am inclined to do exactly what he might be wanting me to do and define my hand with a clear hand-ending bet of $18. This leaves him only $23.50 for his final statement if he does call and a scare card hits and good luck to him if he gets lucky – he has paid too much to do so, even if he convinces himself that he has enough phantom outs to justify the call.”
Hero raises to [$12.50]
Villain calls
Pot = $46.50, Hero = $27.00, Villain = $29
** Dealing River ** [5c]
Villain moves all in for [$29]
What’s your move? Would your decision be the same if the river was the [4c]?
Gerard Harraghy says:
“It’s pretty hard for the villain to have gotten to this point without having either a flush draw or some sort of made hand that has showdown value. I never really expect him to turn a hand that has showdown value into a bluff here so it looks like villain has got there on the river.
I just can’t see him bluffing anywhere near the required amount of the time to make calling profitable here, so I think we have to curse our bad luck and fold. I don’t think we ever have to worry about Q-Q, T-T, 9-9, Q-4, T-4 or 9-4 and with there only being 2 fours remaining in the deck, the fact that the four has paired on the end doesn’t really change the result of the hand too much in my opinion.”
John Hayes says:
“We’ve already decided we will call in the scenario above, but with the small bet of 12 into 22 we gave our foe just shy of 3:1 to call the turn and his real implied odds even without his phantom outs count might have justified the call with the flush draw and certainly with a piece of the board already plus the draw.
Going back to the start, a call from the blind with suited cards hoping to hit or get away early in the hand would be consistent with someone who is raising and taking the aggressive line more often than not when he gets involved.
The flop check-raise is either checking if we mean our continuation bet or a real hand – but only 4-4 or Q-T would seem to make sense for a real hand. Given the preference to be on the offensive, I am inclined to think the flop raise is just checking the credentials of the continuation bet.
So now the turn call is our problem.
I’m unable to decide if the turn call is planning to push any scare card or not, I am completely undecided whether I am calling to catch the semi-bluff non-nut, OK hand that didn’t improve or to fold to a reasonably believable flush.
I think I would play this differently on different days – for the sake of discussion, I will call this one and wish I had bet more on the turn.”
Read #3...
Gerard Harraghy and John Hayes both became Green Belts as a result of the Grading process. If you would like to ask them a question or have query about the hand, then please leave your feedback in the comments’ box below.