History: The game is $0.25/0.50 six-handed No Limit Hold’em. You’ve just sat down at the table and so have no information on any of your opponents for this session. You do, however, have 71 previous hands on Villian, and have his stats at 20/13 with an attempt to steal of 42 percent. You join the table on the big blind.
Seat 1: CO: $11
Seat 2: BTN: $37
Seat 3: Villain (SB): $53
Seat 4: Hero (BB): $50
Seat 6: UTG: $74
Dealt to Hero [Ah-8h]
UTG folds
CO folds
BTN folds
Villain raises to [$2]
What’s your move? What’s your raising/calling range here? Do you ever fold?
Jamie Burland says:
“The first thing to note is that we have a very small sample on the villain so I think the only thing we can really take from the information is that the villain is aggressive from the steal positions. I'm never folding in this spot. I would normally be looking into the villain's fold to three-bet stat but, again, this only becomes semi-reliable over 500 plus hands.
We are both at least 100 big blinds deep so have a little room to manoevre. In this case, I will raise 100 percent of the time, but against a regular player who I have some history with I can throw in some calls, maybe 20 percent of the time.
Against this particular opponent my raising range is:
2-2+, A-2s+, K-2s+, 9-7s+, 8-6s+, 7-5s+, 6-4s+, A-2o+, K-Qo
and my calling range is around:
Q-2s+, J-7s+, T-7s+, 9-6s+, 8-5s+, 7-5s+, 6-4s+, 5-3s+, 4-3s+, K-5o-K-Jo, Q-8o+, J-7o+, 9-7o+, 8-6o+, 6-5o+, 5-4o+”
Kevin Williams says:
“13% PFR is pretty nitty for six-max, but in a battle of the blinds we should still be way ahead of his raising range here. I like the three-bet as we take the pot down a bunch right here and even if he calls we are in position with a hand that can flop pretty well.”
Hero raises to [$6]
Villian calls.
Pot = $12, Hero = $44, Villain = $47
** Dealing Flop ** [Kd-2h-9s]
Villain checks
What’s your move? Is this a good or bad flop?
Jamie Burland says:
“This is a good flop for us as it is not too connected and looks as though it could have hit our PF three-bet range. We are aware that it is likely that the villain is checking almost 100 percent of his three-bet calling range on this board so our bet is an attempt to take the pot down here.”
Kevin Williams says:
“It’s not an awful flop, pretty dry and we can definitely represent the king. It’s definitely a lot better than something like a Jd-Td-6c board where we will have no idea where we are on a lot of turn cards. I continuation bet to about $9.”
Hero bets $8.50
Villain calls
Pot = $29, Hero = $35.50, Villain = $38.50
** Dealing Turn ** [As]
Villain checks
What’s your move? What was your plan if the turn had been a blank?
Jamie Burland says:
“The turn is potentially a ‘Get Out Of Jail Free Card’ for us but we would be forced into a tough decision if faced with a check-raise. A check behind here on the turn is good for pot control and to an extent, deception. At this stage the plan would be to call any bet on the river or think about betting if checked to.
If the turn had been an absolute blank, I would be wishing I had more information on the villain and would be asking myself questions like:
- Could he have J-J/T-T or 2-2-8-8 and was just just floating the flop to gauge my reaction on the turn?
- Would he have check-raised with K-x on the flop?
- If he has a 9x type holding can he call another bullet?
Given the information available, I’d likely be ready to check the turn and reassess on the river.”
Kevin Williams says:
“I bet again to extract value from a king or stubborn middle pair. No reason to expect our hand is not good here, villain needs to have either floated us out of position with a better ace, or hold one of the very few set/two pair combinations to have us beat.
Villain’s stats suggest he is pretty passive, so I do not expect to be put to too many tough decisions after this bet unless he has the goods. I would also bluff this card a lot if my hand was say, 9-8 of hearts so bet to balance my range. Also doesn’t hurt to charge a back-door flush draw.
If the turn is a brick I check behind a lot as there would be little reason for the villain to believe anything had changed since the flop. I also give myself a chance to hit one of my potential ace outs, or get to showdown with some possible value.”
Hero checks
** Dealing River ** [7s]
Villain bets [$14.50]
What’s your move? Do you think there’s anything to read into players who use the ‘bet half pot’ button?
Jamie Burland says:
“Our turn check was part of a plan to call the river bet. Against the villain's range for calling the flop he has somewhere between 0 to 15 outs to beat us. A BDF has arrived so I think raising is bad.
In the villain's position a half pot bet for value is the minimum I would bet here whereas a half bluff is more likely as I am aware that only one out of three need to get through to break even.
I think he can bet close to 100 percent of his range half pot on the river thanks to our perceived weakness on the turn. I'm putting the opponent on a likely range of J-J-4-4, A-Ks-A-9s, A-2s, K-Qs-K-9s, K-Qo, Q-Js, Q-Ts, K-Jo, Q-Jo, J-Ts, A-9o, A-2o and am happy to call.”
Kevin Williams says:
“As played this is an insta-flat call. Once we have checked the ace turn the villain has every reason to value bet a king. We have no information to suggest he has hit a back door flush and the rest of his value range is still as small as it was on the turn.
Also, a lot of fishy players like to turn small pairs into a bluff here once we’ve shown ‘weakness’ by checking the turn. We definitely have the 25 percent equity we need versus his range here to break even.
In my experience, often the ‘half pot’ looks like the smallest amount you can bluff that has a chance of getting through, this does change from player to player of course and so would only affect a small part of my decision here.”
Jamie Burland and Kevin Williams both became Blue Belts as a result of the Grading process. If you would like to ask them a question or have query about the hand, then please leave your feedback in the comments’ box below.
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