History: It’s the £300 monthly freezeout at Dusk Till Dawn and we’re nine-handed. Lucy Rokach joins the table with around 140,000. She steals your big blind on the first two orbits and is generally playing very aggressively, as is customary with her playing style. You have a solid image and have 60,500 at the start of the hand.
The blinds are 1,500/3,000 (300) and you are in the big blind.
Rokach raises to 10,500 from early position.
The action folds around to you.
You look down at Js-Jd.
What’s your move? Knowing that Rokach could have any two cards, is there any reason to flat call here?
Richie says:
“Personally, I wouldn’t choose to flat call here as I don’t want to take a vulnerable hand like J-J out of position against an aggressive opponent because if you do decide to flat call (trapping) then you will have to go with the hand on such a huge percentage of flops. This is very risky in tournament poker as she has you covered, so one mistake post-flop and you are eliminated.
With the current game dynamics, I like to raise to induce and make it roughly 26-28,000 as I’m sure Rokach knows full well I’m likely to be getting a little frustrated with her constant raising of my big blind and could well four-bet all in light in this spot.”
Neil says:
“I hate trying to trap with J-J when we have to call for a sixth of our stack preflop; we have an awkward stack size as we cant find an amount to reraise to and then fold. I’m always jamming here and normally adding 10,000 to my stack as our opponent will often fold. Maybe we have to win a race but I don’t think Rokach will call for a unless she has A-K here. She is chipped up and knows we are playing pretty tight and won’t want to race while she is very comfortable in chips.
Steve could be looking for a stop-and-go kind of move assuming he does indeed have an overpair to the flop, but again I’m not a huge fan of this play in this scenario when we could simply make the move preflop.”
You call.
Flop: Ac-Th-Td
Pot = 25,200, You = 50,000, Rokach = 139,500
What’s your move? If we plan to trap preflop, should we play the hand whatever the flop, or is the ace enough to scare us off?
Richie says:
“This is an ugly flop and an automatic check; there are definitely no benefits from leading here. I don’t think you have to die with it just because we planned to slow-play, so I’d check-call one bet here and reevaluate on the turn.”
Neil says:
“We get a horrible flop for our J-J and my immediate thought is to check-fold to a continuation bet of any size. There is no way were putting 10,000 in with suited connectors here so Rokach has to know we have some kind of genuine hand here.”
You check.
Rokach checks.
Turn: 4s
What’s your move?
Richie says:
“I check again. Rokach checked the flop behind which is strange for an aggressive player.”
Neil says:
“When she checks the flop, my thoughts, excluding reads, are that she has a weak ace or maybe J-J through to K-K. I can’t see her checking A-K or A-Q here. I would lead the turn and see what Rokach wants to do or even check-raise if I think she’ll bet something small.”
You check.
Rokach bets 9,000.
What’s your move?
Richie says:
“I don’t like it but as I’ve decided to slow-play J-J preflop it’s nigh on impossible to pass the turn here for a 9,000 bet. So, I’d call and, again, reevaluate the hand when the river comes.”
Neil says:
The 9,000 looks incredibly weak to me; its less than her raise preflop! I don’t see any reason to flat call here – yes, it looks weak but a call looks even weaker. Her 9,000 makes me feel she has something like A-8, A-9 or A-J, or Q-Q, K-K or 9-9. We’re only beating one of these hands and so a call doesn’t really achieve anything.
You call.
River = 4d
Pot = 43,200, You = 41,000, Rokach = 130,500
What’s your move? Is a block bet worth considering here?
Richie says:
“I’m check-passing here, because although Rokach is hyper aggressive, she is a very experienced post-flop player and knows full well after I called her turn bet that it’s very unlikely I’m passing the river. A blocker bet is only getting called by an ace; f you really think J-J is good here, surely you want her to bet the river with air.”
Neil says:
“The river card comes an absolute blank and so if we were winning on the flop then are still winning now. Rokach is only ever betting here if we’re beat and checking if we’re winning. She may also fold if we bet. I would probably try to find a blocking bet of around 15,000.”
You check.
Lucy bets 15,000.
What’s your move? What’s you overall view of the way this hand has been played?
Richie says:
“It’s a very milky bet, I think I’m more likely to call a shove than this value bet. I just don’t see what hand she expects you to pass if she’s bluffing. I pass.
I think the minute we decided to slow-play this hand out of position we stuck ourselves in a sticky situation. Rokach is extremely aggressive and doesn’t like passing, so this is the perfect opportunity for you to win a nice pot and put yourself in good shape to win the tournament. J-J versus Lucy Rokach = nuts.”
Neil says:
When she bets we are losing 99 percent of the time and I’m never calling, but I would assume she flips A-9 or A-J here as she would probably check the river with Q-Q or K-K.
Without wanting to be too critical, I don’t like the way any of these streets have been played. I reraise preflop, but once we flat call, I would check the flop and then be very tempted to lead the turn as I think she is weak and would struggle to find a call against someone who she would have down as a tight player as well.
The Reveal: You call and Rokach reveals A-9 for two pair.