History: Button is new to the table and is an unknown entity. Villian has stats of 28/18 over 500 hands. He is not a complete fish, but finds it difficult to fold hands at times. Today he accrued his stack with aces versus kings all in preflop. Hero, 23/20, has a tight, aggressive image, continue betting 80 percent of hands. Hero initially doubled up by flopping a set against an overpair.
NL $1/2 Texas Hold’em, six-max (Real Money)
Seat 1: Button ($207.75)
Seat 2: SB ($150)
Seat 3: Hero ($625)
Seat 4: UTG ($61)
Seat 6: C/O ($274.15)
Dealt to Hero [Ah-Ac]
UTG folds
Villain raises to [$7]
C/O folds
Button calls [$7]
SB folds
What’s your move?
Stuart says:
With the big pairs, I would much rather play the pot heads up than three-way. This is particularly the case when we are deep stacked and out of position, and so I would actually make quite a large raise here to try to achieve this. It is less likely to be given good credit, and there is an extra possibility at play here. If we can choose a bet size to make the pot seem lucrative, we might just be able to tempt the button player to make a misguided all-in move after the villain calls. Even if this is unlikely, it fits well with a raise to about $40, and I think this is the perfect size.
Nik says:
The key part for me is that we are over 300 big blinds effective with the UTG+1 villain. Normally I would raise just over the size of the pot out of position with 100 big blind stacks, but there is an argument here for quite a large raise. If we have not been three-betting a lot preflop, a reraise from the blinds does look very strong and can turn our hand quite ‘face-up’ - we will suffer from reverse implied odds.
I like a larger raise to, say, $35 in this case; getting a lot of money in preflop with aces can never be a bad thing. If both players call, then we will have roughly six times the pot post-flop and I would be happier to get the money in.
Just as a last point, I don’t want to raise too much and ‘kill’ my action in the hand; aces don’t come around very often.
Hero raises to [$27]
Villain calls [$20]
Button calls [$20]
Pot = $82, Hero’s Stack = $598
** Dealing Flop ** [8d-9d-2c]
What’s your move?
Nik says:
I see no reason not to bet for value here, as there are many worse hands that can call us. Our bet size is quite important though. I like a bet of just under two thirds of the pot as I don’t want to push too many of the worse hands out. Also, it controls the size of the pot to some extent. It’s a shame that we’re playing the hand out of position; it could be quite tricky against a really tough opponent/s.
Stuart says:
Though not awful, this is not a great flop for aces, simply because there are a number of different turn cards that can leave us with no good action. However, our equity for getting all the chips in on the flop against either player is still very good, and so there is one thing that we would love to happen: to be reraised by either of our two opponents.
If we are reraised, we can deepen the pot size before a good flop becomes a dangerous turn, and this is reason enough to justify a small bet of around $35. The usual argument that this offers the villain good odds to draw holds little weight here. With the stacks so deep, the more important factor of implied odds to draw always falls in the villain’s favour. A small bet on the flop can allow us a greater flexibility to get away on the turn, and hence can actually cut our opponent’s implied odds.
A plan to value bet our hand with three near-pot bets looks good on so few boards that could run out, and against so few hands. It is for this reason that the usual bet-bet-bet is not attractive, and these alternative plans are worth consideration.
Hero bets [$65]
Villain calls [$65]
Button folds
Pot = $212, Hero’s Stack = $533
** Dealing Turn ** [2s]
What’s your move?
Nik says:
This is in fact a great card for us as it completes no flushes or straights and makes us a very strong hand in the ‘nut’ two pair. There is now $212 in the pot and our opponent has $523 in his stack. I think that we are ahead here so often that betting for value is really the right play. If we bet $120 and he calls, there will be $452 in the pot and he will have $403 left. This may allow us to shove the river (depending on the river card) as he would have just under one pot-sized bet left.
Stuart says:
With a pot now of $212 and an effective stack of $533, there is an option that jumps out at me on this great turn. If our villain is reasonably aggressive and could bet either a made hand or a draw, the stacks are perfect for a check-raise all-in.
It is a technique that can both tie the villain to the pot with a worse made hand, or force him to put a lot of money into the pot with the poor equity of a one-card drawing hand. If a check fails to induce a bet, it will not be against the type of hand that could give us two streets of value anyway, and so less will be lost than it may seem.
Note that, although a standard big bet is not a bad option here, it does still give our opponent decent implied odds to draw with $300 plus behind, and so it is difficult to argue its superiority over a check.
Hero bets [$135]
Villain calls [$135]
Pot = $482, Hero’s Stack = $398
** Dealing River ** [7c]
What’s your move?
Nik says:
In fact, again, we bet slightly more and the river is an interesting street. If we are behind, then in the long run I think that he has flopped a set, slow-played the flop and turn and has us drawing to two outs. The river completes J-T for a straight but I think that hand isn’t a major concern and he would have to make a fairly big mistake versus our range by calling on the turn. I would bet again but not necessarily shove (as planned) to try and get called by some other overpairs. However, if I thought he would call the whole lot, I’d move all in.
Stuart says:
Though it is difficult to quantify the best action, we can say one thing for sure here: you should not be choosing between the two options of moving all in or checking, but instead between three. These are moving all in, checking with the intention to fold, and checking with the intention to call. Of course, a bet size may sway your decision, but in principle it is crucial to have a definite plan here as it is only with a plan of the next decision that can justify your decision to check.
Our villain’s flat call on the turn has brought two possibilities to the fore. Either he was slow-playing a hand that can beat aces (a full house or better) or he was still drawing. Betting has little merit, as the turn flat call can help us to eliminate most of the hands (e.g. 9-8, T-T, J-J) that we can successfully value bet on the end.
Hero checks
Villain is all in for [$388]
Pot = $870, Hero’s Stack = $398
What’s your move?
Nik says:
This is a strange line that our hero has taken by checking rather than betting the river. I can see that our hero is concerned now that he may be beat somewhere along the line and wants to control the pot size by checking (maybe ‘block’ bet-folding would be a better plan).
I think that whether or not you now call is interesting and that you have to consider a number of factors. Firstly, how likely is he to bluff this river with a missed flush draw (or combo draw)? Secondly, as I mentioned earlier, our hand is quite face-up and he has to realise that he is trying to make us fold an overpair on the river (which most people are incapable of doing). Given that our hand is face-up, is he bluffing knowing that his line is consistent with a strong hand and that he knows we know that?
At the $1/2 level online, people tend not to think too deeply about their opponent’s range, preferring to focus on playing their own hands for value. Also, is he capable of slow-playing? What value hands is he shoving the river with? (Does he get to the river with sets in this way?) How does he play certain types of drawing hands on the flop/turn? I don’t like this spot because making the right decision is largely dependent on our opponent’s specific tendencies. In conclusion, I would call some of the time and fold some of the time.
Stuart says:
Faced with a decision between check-calling and check-folding, I think we have to choose the reluctant call. It is the kind of call that you may want to make with your eyes closed. However, the fact that missed flush draws must make up a large part of our villain’s range is itself enough to justify the better than 2:1 odds we are getting to call.