So far in this series we have reviewed some of the fundamentals of tournament play and examined the various aspects surrounding tournament equity. I am sure some of you have heard people talk about inflection points during a tournament, but never really grasped exactly what they are on about.
I believe that recognising these points and knowing what to do about them is one of the skills that help set apart the best players from the also-rans.
What are they?
An inflection point is a reference to a key/important moment in a particular tournament when something changes. Many triggers can cause an inflection point, hence why determining these key points isn’t always easy. Review and self-analysis is good, but we want the best, and that means identifying inflection points before they occur.
The Usual Suspects
- Doubling-Up
- Dropping to a 10 big blind stack
- Increase in blinds/antes
- Moving to new table
- New players moving to the table
- Money bubble
These are some of the most common inflection points that you will encounter. First of all, you will notice that, of the six examples above, only two of them are under your control: doubling-up, and dropping to a 10 big blind stack – and even they require a villain involved in the hand. The other four listed are not under your control - such as being on the bubble or the blinds (i.e. structural changes where the information is available to all).
Table movement, however, is totally out of your hands, and something which can have a big effect on the overall outcome of the tournament. As noted, ideally, we want to work on being able to predict and utilise inflection points before they occur as opposed to merely reacting to the aftermath. I should stress that this is not always easy to do, or even possible in all cases.
Prediction
Let’s start with the things you can control: gaining or losing chips. Whilst you cannot predict that either of the two options will be a direct result of hand 'x', what you can work on is thinking about how each of the above possibilities would affect your play if they were to occur. In other words, you are preempting the possibility of fluctuations in your chip stack by already having a plan in place. (The most common example of this is often found in a rebuy tournament where a player is playing a lot of hands, gets chipped up and then reverts to playing a more normal style, or dropping to 10 big blinds late in a tournament and proceeding to frequently move all in preflop.)
Similarly, predicting table movements is pretty hard to do, the exception being if you already know the breaking order of tables at a live event, either by working it out (they are normally logical) or asking the tournament director. On moving to a new table, you should have a look around for any familiar names (and stack sizes, also) and think about how the table is likely to play. Are there lots of short stacks near you, meaning you’re going to have to play aggressively against them to counter their aggression? Are there big stacks that could lead to us having to play a bit pot.
A lot of this thought can be done outside of a tournament. For example, I have a 30 big blind stack and get moved to a new table; I am in the small blind; I have a short stack on the button who it folds round to; he open raises. What's the bottom of my range for setting him in here? How does that change depending on the big blind’s stack size/tendencies? Once you have considered these kind of questions, you will be able to hit the ground running at a new table from hand number one, and not sit there for a few orbits to gain reads or observe the table’s play.
Likewise, if there is a space at your table, it is fairly likely that it will be filled at some point. How will a big/medium/small stack player with tight/loose tendencies affect the table dynamic? How will you respond to this? These are all questions that can be thought through before they happen. In other words, be proactive, not reactive.
I am sure that the standard player sees a new player arrive at the table, and, maybe after a few orbits, thinks, ‘Yup, he is definitely stealing my blind light when I get a hand; I am going to play back at him.’ Six orbits later you get a hand, but guess what, he is no longer the short stack, you are. Have a think about some possible situations and how you should react to them; put some hand ranges into PokerStove. With experience, you will find that you can prepare youself for a lot of the inflection points that are out of your direct control.
The structural inflection points are the ones that we are most able to predict and plan for. The tournament structure is published in advance so we should be aware of how we can use this to our advantage. By this, I mean not only working out how present stack sizes relate to the current blind/ante level, but also how they will be affected by the next level if they remain unchanged. Not just yours, but also the rest of the table. Identifying this key inflection point you should be able to identify and apply pressure to the right stacks and, in doing so, gain chip/stack benefits before your villains have identified what is going on.
Let's look at an example:
***** Hand History for Game 3493266941 ***** (IPoker)
Tourney Hand NL Texas Hold'em - Thursday, March 17, 11:29:14 ET 2011
Seat 1: unusualone ( $48571.47 USD )
Seat 3: TFMonty007 ( $74969.35 USD )
Seat 4: NikolaM65 ( $112402.14 USD )
Seat 6: Neuroendocrine ( $84523.50 USD )
Seat 8: thirdtimearound ( $30421.56 USD )
Seat 9: Imustcallyou ( $56985.00 USD )
Seat 10: roadrat ( $18170.08 USD )
Neuroendocrine posts ante of [$300.00 USD].
thirdtimearound posts ante of [$300.00 USD].
Imustcallyou posts ante of [$300.00 USD].
roadrat posts ante of [$300.00 USD].
unusualone posts ante of [$300.00 USD].
TFMonty007 posts ante of [$300.00 USD].
NikolaM65 posts ante of [$300.00 USD].
Neuroendocrine posts small blind [$1500.00 USD].
thirdtimearound posts big blind [$3000.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to TFMonty007 [ 9h 2s ]
Imustcallyou folds
roadrat folds
unusualone folds
TFMonty007 raises [$6200.00 USD]
NikolaM65 calls [$6200.00 USD]
Neuroendocrine folds
thirdtimearound folds
** Dealing Flop ** [ 8d, Js, Qc ]
TFMonty007 bets [$9000.00 USD]
NikolaM65 folds
TFMonty007 wins $28000.00 USD from main pot
This example comes from the late stages - just outside the final table - of the $7,000 GTD. At present, I have an M of just over 10; the next level is 2,000/4,000(400). If my stack doesn't change size, then my M will be around 8; if it doesn't maintain and I fold for, say, two orbits, it will be closer to 5. In other words, if I want to maintain some form of initiative in the tournament and, more importantly, a reasonable chance of winning, then it is important to realise that we need some more chips.
As we already know, people play differently during the bubble stages, so we can push for chips lightly. I can fold to a reraise, even if the shorter stack in the big blind shoves (although not the greatest situation in the world), so I elect to open up with junk, in the hope of taking down the pot uncontested. The button foils my plan and we reach an OK flop, considering our weak holding. As we can realistically have a lot of two-pair/pair straight draw combos in our range, I c-bet for just under half pot. I think that sizing gives me the most flexibility with decision-making and is also enough to leverage the effective stacks here.
The net result of winning this hand is that, when the next level kicks in, I will have maintained my stack size around an M of 10 and not slipped down towards the push/fold territory of M<5 by identifying an inflection point in advance and capitalising on it.
Turn negatives into positives and do something about them first. Take your destiny into your own hands and you will find that your success rate will increase. As I have alluded to, you can do work away from the tables in this area by thinking about different situations that occur and how you would react to them. It is worthwhile, and one of the reasons why the same faces are always coming out on top; they understand all the influences on tournament success and can utilise to their advantage the various tournament situations that arise.
Previous MTT Pokerka articles:
Part One: Basic Principles
Part Two: Tournament Equity