Continued from Part One…
Level Three: What does our opponent think we have?
At this stage it is crucial to remember that only Level Two players are going to be thinking on to a high enough degree to enable us to apply our knowledge and skill successfully. The Level One thinkers just won’t appreciate or understand what is going on enough of the time to make any kind of plays against them plus EV.
Lots of thought is always going on by players at this level. They will be constantly assessing and evaluating how the hand is being played in relation to reading the board. They will bet thinner for value and also be good at making credible bluffs; knowing what hands they can represent that make sense as the board develops. On the whole this takes a great deal of practice and knowledge of opponent’s actions and being able to identify and use scare cards.
It is of no coincidence that the players at this level of thinking are consistent winners who can adapt to any given situation and pace of game. To illustrate this further I am going to look at some recent hands that have been played, and take you through my thought process. Hopefully, it will get you thinking and if that’s the case then this article has been a success and you have taken a further step towards developing your game in a positive manner.
Hand Example #1
IPoker Network $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players
MP: $97.75 (Hero)
HJ: $17.08
CO: $69.83 (Villain B) 21/6/2.5 (1k)
BTN: $50.00
SB: $17.51
BB: $50.00
UTG: $41.21 (Villain A) 44/20/16 (25)
VP$IP/PFR/3bet (Hands)
Pre Flop: ($0.75)
Villain A raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, HJ fold, Villain B reraises to $4.50, 3 folds, Villain A calls $3, Hero calls $3
First of all you will notice that I have removed my holdings so that you have the opportunity to think about the possible ranges as we go along. Despite the limited number of hands on Villain A I discounted him from pretty much anything apart from adding money into the pot as I figured that if he had a decent hand he would have four-bet preflop. However, his call gave me some reasonable odds to call against the much tighter Villain B, whose range can be put fairly accurately at Q-Q+ A-K+, with, considering it’s the button, sometimes J-J and A-Q.
Flop: ($14.25) 9d-5c-Ks (3 players)
Villain A bets $7.12, Hero calls $7.12, Villain B calls $7.12
The flop is down and no one is blinking yet. K-K for Villain B is obviously forming a part of my thinking here, especially when he just flat calls. I can pretty much rule out J-J or A-Q as I don’t think they would continue in this spot. Q-Q might call a street. A-A may raise as value against a king, however, with a bet and call in front, I don’t see many Villains being keen to chase people off their hands with strong holdings. At this moment I am putting Villain A on a continuation bet with his random holdings hoping that everyone else folds and Villain B with either K-K, A-A or A-K. Judging by the millisecond it has taken each player to act I don’t think they have given a moments consideration to my holdins.
Turn: ($35.61) Kc (3 players)
Villain A bets $17.80, Hero calls $17.80, Villain B calls $17.80
Now this is a very interesting card, as it means that more often than not Villain B is going to have AK or AA if he decides to proceed with the hand. Once again Villain A leads out and although I am marginally concerned he may have a set of nines here, I am not overly worried. Perhaps he has picked up an A-x flush draw or maybe he has J-T or J-Q for the gutter, however, total air is also possible considering there was only passive play behind him. If he is capable of thought then he may consider that we have both floated, and that he can represent trip kings.
Once again, I just flat call with my focus clearly on Villain B's actions. For the second time, he just flat calls in a split second. Considering he has $40 left behind and two people still involved, I am trying to decide if he would have played A-A in this manner. I think it is more likely that he would have reraised on the flop, so am 98 percent confident Villain B has AK and is trying to trap.
River: ($89.01) 7h (3 players)
Villain A checks, Hero bets $68.33, Villain B calls $40.41 all in, Villain A folds
Villain A decides to get out of the way having contributed $29.42 (out of $41.21 starting stack) to the pot. The only card on the river that would have given me any concern would have been the last king or an ace. As it stands I am confident Villain B is well and truly on the hook and hasn't given a moment’s consideration to my holding (worked it out yet?) and is going to pay me off in a monster pot. This time Villain B does go into the tank for 15 seconds deciding what he should do with his trip kings and top kicker. I believe that this is the first time he has thought about what I may or may not have.
Final Pot: $197.75
Hero shows 5s-5d
Villain B shows Kh-Ac
Hero wins $194.75
(Rake: $3.00)
Now have a think from Villain B's perspective and ask yourself the following question: On the river, what hands are you beating that call an early position preflop raise, a three-bet and call, and then flat-call every street before pushing all in on fifth street? Considering the board, does it not leap out and scream at you that I have 9-9 or 5-5? Would he be getting action like this from K-Q or a weaker king. The important lesson here goes back to the start and Level One thinking – ‘what do I have?’ The Villain’s hand looks so strong and juicy that he cant possible get away from it as due consideration hasn’t been given to the holdings of the other players at the table. In this case, I think it is clear to see that the gap in thinking levels really does equal profit.
Hand Example #2:
IPoker Network $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players -
UTG+1: $61.54
MP: $33.10
HJ: $71.14
CO: $59.89
BTN: $49.44 (Hero)
SB: $54.39 (Villain) 15/12/4.5(750)
BB: $70.80
UTG: $63.12
VP$IP/PFR/3bet(Hands)
Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is with 9d-Jd
5 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, Villain reraises to $5.00, 1 fold, Hero calls $3.50
Coming out of the small blind the Villains range should be at its tightest and I put it at J-J+ A-Qs+ A-Ko, with the occasional random defence hand, although this Villain is not on the uber aggressive side and is a multi-table regular, so i think the range I assigned is fairly safe. Basically, I am looking for either a helpful flop to my hand or a low flop, whereby I can take the Villain off his hand.
Flop: ($10.50) 8d-6s-Th (2 players)
Villain bets $7.00, Hero calls $7.00
Now this is getting pretty close to the perfect flop that I was calling for. I know the Villain has either two overcards or a big pair. Now some maths comes into play: Using a programme called PokerStove, I know that against the Villain’s range I am about 41 percent (side note - this drops to 38 percent without the backdoor flush). We are being offered pot odds of 3.16 to 1 for the call, which is equivalent to a Break Even equity of 28.5 percent. As our equity in the hand is 41 percent against the Villain’s range, a call here is a long term profitable play.
Turn: ($24.50) 5d (2 players)
Villain bets $17.50, Hero raises to $37.44 all in, Villain calls $19.94
The turn gives us a flush draw as well. The Villain leads into us again so I am thinking he is primarily weighted towards Q-Q+ here or maybe A-Ks with the flush draw. He continuation bets the turn 38 percent of the time and takes 25 percent of hands to showdown, so I am confident of my assessment of his range. Against the range we now have assigned to him, despite picking up some extra outs, our equity has dropped to 34 percent, primarily as we only have one card to come. Note: Without the flush draw our equity is only 19.5 percent. We are now being asked to call $17.5 into a pot of $42 at odds of 2.5 to 1, which means that we need 29 percent equity in order to break even in the long run. However, despite tightening up the Villain’s range and with only one card to come our outs available give us a clear 5 percent above breakeven, as highlights without the flush draw too this would now be a clear fold as we would be 10 percent under breakeven.
I decided to shove as I would have had $19.90 odd back, with $29.50 invested in the pot if I just called, and whilst I may not fold out many made hand,s it is possible to get a rogue A-K or have some Villain’s worrying about a set. Furthermore, it also means the Villain doesn’t have the option of check-folding (even if unlikely) the river if we hit.
River: ($99.38) 2d (2 players)
Final Pot: $99.38
Hero shows 9d Jd
Villain shows Kd Ks
Hero wins $96.38
(Rake: $3.00)
OK, in this hand example the Villain may well have been fully aware of where he was at in the hand and what my holding was, however, it was still correct for him to call. I have included this example as yes we did get lucky, but remember the luck in poker comes from making good solid decisions when it is plus EV. Get yourself into a position to be lucky with the right hands and equity. The rest will take care of itself.
Please find below a video in which I take us through the aforementioned hands. If you have any comments about anything I've said, then please feel free to leave your feedback, views, questions and so on in the comments box at the foot of the page.