Level-Headed
Texas Hold’em is a simple and straightforward game. Everyone has two cards and the same random chance of being dealt the best two cards. If you like your hand you bet, if you don’t, you fold, so how come some players are always consistently winning then?
The answer lies in the thought process applied to the game. The different levels of thought are what set the players apart, and the gap between the relative levels of thought is effectively the profit/loss for a session. This should make it abundantly clear that understanding the thought processes involved and being able to identify and recognise what levels players are thinking at is the key to riches, or in the lingo, plus EV.
In my first two articles we are going to look at the three levels that players think at.
Level One: What do I have?
This is the realm of the novice player. They will look at their cards and if they like them then they will play them without any real regard for the other players at the table, the previous action, or the potential action of the players still to act.
Not a lot of thought goes into their game. This is poker at its most basic level, they know what they have and they know what cards are on the board. Players at this level of thinking are unlikely to bluff or fold to a bluff and will call to the river with their draws. They are basically playing a passive bet or fold style preflop and assuming some form of connection with the board, before quite happily entering into calling station mode, regardless of whatever flush/straight/over cards may be out there.
Therefore, when tackling this kind of opponent you want to bluff less, use your position and take them on a tour of value town.
Level Two: What does my opponent have?
This player has learnt, at least to some degree, that position is his friend. As such he is giving thought to what his opponents are doing and adjusting his own actions accordingly. It is important to understand that there are good and bad players who fit into this level of thinking, the key difference between the two is that while they may both be aware of the same principles, one is misapplying them consistently, e.g. continuation betting. In other words, the bad players have an exploitable weakness.
Expect to find your multi-table regulars in this category, at least at $100 No Limit and below. They will be playing the same hands in the same way from the same positions, and just grinding out a consistent steady profit without doing anything too spectacular.
With the prevalence of poker tracking software, I think it is important to talk about its use within the context of this level and how we can use some of the tools available to help us in our decision making process.
The main starting point is either PokerTacker or Hold’em Manager. Both have their won trials, so try them both and see which one you prefer. I use PT3, so whilst the content will mainly be based off PT here it is equally applicable to HM users. No doubt many of you have downloaded and use one or the other now, and your game has instantly transformed into a winning one. No? Like all information, having it is great, but what you do with it is another matter entirely. Unlocking this element is the key to success and completing our evolution to the third level of thinking.
The basis for analysing our opponents comes from the holy trinity VP$IP/PFR/AF, otherwise known as Voluntarily Put $ Into Pot, Pre Flop Raise, and Aggression Factor. The first two are a percentage of total hands whereas AF is a ratio of bet/raise to check/call. For instance, if the number is 2, that means that he/she is twice as likely to bet/raise as he is to check/call, so this helps us to identify the kind of opponent we are up against, i.e. tight aggressive (TAG) or loose-passive (FISH), etc. Understanding how these numbers relate to your game is crucial. The number of hands held is also key to the reliability of the information. The more hands the more marginal decisions you can use the Heads-Up Display (HUD) for influence. Generally speaking, 1,000 is a good starting point.
Let's say we have a TAG and he shows 24/20/3, it is important for us to realise that this standard for six-max maybe a little loose for eight-max, and probably not what you want to be running in full-ring games. Therefore, if you mix around your games and see the same opponent at different size tables it is important that you have your HUD configured to display only the information relevant to the size of table you are playing on. If the TAG in the example is playing full-ring like it's six-max, then you need to know so you can adjust your own ranges accordingly. If he isn’t and you are showing his full info then you may think he is, which will be bad news for you.
It is little details like these that not many people fully appreciate and understand. Applying the information you have gained so it can be used in the most effective manner is what will set you apart from the rest and benefit your bankroll.
3-Bet is another crucial stat for our pre-flop analysis. Many people hardly ever three-bet at all at the micro levels (NL50 and below), so we need to understand exactly what hands they are doing this with so we can decide if we want to continue with our own hand or not. A program called PokerStove can help us here. By using this we can identify that two percent of hands are A-A, K-K, Q-Q and A-K suited. So, if we have raised and get three-bet by someone with a two rating then I would hope its obvious that suited connectors, low pocket pairs or A-x flush draws are not the kind of hands we want to be getting overly involved with. As we know what our opponent's cards are we can by all means have a look at a flop, though often it is more profitable to just fold. The important thing is that we have identified the villain’s likely range of holdings and can play optimally against them.
That is the crux of the matter: we are using the information at our disposal to help us make optimal decisions. There are a whole host of different stats available that can be used in combination to develop reads and assign hand ranges to the villain, however, they need their own series of articles to give the subject the depth that it requires.
Great, so we now have the basis for developing our Level Two thinking and profiling our opponents, we need to identify their weakness. To achieve this, a certain amount of experimentation is required as to what works for yourself, the important thing is that you are thinking about it.
Join me next time as I examine the final way of thinking, Level Three.
Read Part Two...
If you have any questions for Gavin, please post your query in the comment box below.