Play Poker Tree…
In last week’s edition of The Poker Tree, we returned to the cash tables to play a spot of $1/2 and ask readers what they would do when faced with A-T on a ten high two diamond flop. As always, views were numerous and varying, with everyone offering though-provoking analysis on the hand in question.
As with Poker Tree #1, Nik Persaud was also on hand to provide his ‘Golden Route’, the only route that doesn’t end in defeat. Today, Nik justifies his route by explaining his decision on each street and outlining his thought process throughout the hand.
If you haven’t yet worked your way through the Poker Tree or just need a reminder of the hand in question, then be sure to do so now so you can see how closely your thought process resembles that of the pros.
Nik Persaud
Nik Persaud is a highly successful online pro from London who plays both MTTs and cash games. Nik is also apt live, boasting $310,000 in tournament winnings including three GUKPT final tables.
He has written a number of articles for Black Belt Poker including:
Creative Thinking
The Fundamental Theorem of Poker
Your Move: Deep With Aces
Nik’s Golden Route: 2, 4, 15, 21, 30
(2) Raise to $6 preflop
Limping is simply not an option here, particularly six-handed. Flat calling will open up a whole can of worms and result in a lot of lost value. In fact, limping altogether from this position is something that won’t be profitable in the long run.
Folding is not as bad as limping, but still extremely minus ev. The only time I might ever consider open-folding A-T six-handed is if the table is super tough, but if that were the case, I’d probably be searching the other tables for weaker opponents.
In this sense, raising is the only move. I’m happy to make it $6, three times the big blind. I don’t see any need to raise more.
(4) Bet $8 on the flop
Again, a definite bet. The only question is one of bet-sizing. Out of the two options, I’d go for $8, but would prefer to bet around $10-12. Betting this figure makes it slightly easier to get it all in on later streets. It’s also important to balance your bet sizes rather than bet $14 one hand, and then $8 another as players will begin to detect patterns and tells and react accordingly.
(15) Call the check-raise
This is an easy call, mainly because of his high check-raise stat. It’s possible that he has us beat, but overpairs are likely to have reraised preflop, and it’s hard to make two pair. A set is possible, but still, he has air enough of the time to warrant a call. His range is just too wide to fold. Some players will even check-raise hands like 8-8, 7-7, etc, as if they’ll somehow find out where they are.
You could protect if you wish, but it’s not necessary. Because of the high check-raise percentage, we need to give him a chance to bluff off future streets. Raising simply closes off our action against air. In bigger game’s, it’s feasible to raise again to represent air yourself and hope he shoves, but not at $1/2.
(21) Call the turn
The turns seems to be a pretty safe card, so again I’m calling. I don’t want to raise as we need to give him enough rope to hang himself on the river. We’re pretty much making our decision on the river here too by calling - assuming it’s a non-diamond - as we know he’s going to be pushing the fifth street whether he has air or not.
(30) Call the all-in on the river
Another brick, so when he pushes we have to call. The stats are so important here, and along with the pot odds being offered, we don’t have much choice but to call and hope he hasn’t housed up or was slowplaying an overpair. A check-raise percentage of 21 percent is incredibly high, so it’s not just a missed flush draw he can show up with, but also complete air.
(58) Take the pot gracefully
Naturally, although I briefly considered a fist-pump-chair-swivel.
Sida Yuen’s Analysis…
I'd also take Nik’s Golden Route.
There are no conceivable two pair hands in Villain's range on the flop, the only draw that got there is something like 3-4 of diamonds, and sets are too rare (only 5-5, as 2-2 makes quads/super rare, and we have a ten making it highly unlike for Villain to have T-T)
All draws missed and our hand is slightly underrepresented.
Not continuation betting the flop is criminal, and three-betting the flop only folds out bluffs and draws that we are ahead of. Since we can hand read well we can pick off missed draws. Plus, if we three-bet the flop we have to get it in, and we we’ll be in very bad shape: either slightly ahead or massively behind.
One could argue shoving the turn after Villain leads on a brick turn to charge the draws and getting it in good versus combination draws, but since Villain is capable of making moves, his flop check-raising range may not only be polarised to huge draws and sets, so he could have some air as well, and I wouldn't mind letting him barrel many rivers to pick off those pure air bluffs
Green Belt Simon Mair’s Analysis…
(2) Raise to $6 preflop
I’m happy to raise in this spot with A-T off-suit, though probably no worse unsuited. When Villain flats I have him on a fairly good hand, 2-2 to Q-Q, A-x suited, A-J , K-Q, 9-8 suited. He will read strength from our raise, and probably three-bet A-A to K-K hoping we get it in with our strong hand.
(4) Bet $8 on the flop
I’m betting $8 for value, and also hoping to induce a check-raise with my weak looking continuation bet, which seems a strong possibility given our stats.
(15) Call the check-raise
I call in order to pot control and re-evaluate the turn. I'm beating a bunch of bluffs/draws, and want to let him bluff again if the turn misses him. I also want to give myself a chance to hit the turn if I’m behind. Raising just lets him play well. He can either fold air, ship a big draw forcing us to flip or fold, or just flat a big hand and let us hang ourselves / be value-towned later.
(54) Minimum raise to $72 on the turn
I min-raise here for a few reasons, but mainly to head off a big bet on the river, as my line looks super strong. It also gets extra value from the draws. If he shoves I'm getting about 3:1 on my call so I think it's very unlikely he's bluffing given how strong I look here along with the paired board discouraging flush draw semi-bluffs so I can fold.
(54) Fold to the all-in on the river
I fold. If he bluffed me on the turn, good luck to him. Even if he reads me perfect, he has to also know I can lay down here given the odds. A thin spot in my opinion.
Community Routes
Green Belt Adam Goulding:
2 (raise)
4 (bet $8)
15 (call)
21 (call)
30 (call)
58 (get it quietly)
“I think the difficult decision in this hand is the river and is very dependent on what we think of our opponent. I think he is just about aggressive enough to bluff this enough of the time meaning, along with the pot odds we're getting, we should make the call. However, it's not easy because if he's a decent player, he must know that we have a hand by now and will probably be calling the river. Despite this, the high check-raise percentage tips the decision towards a call.”
Orange Belt Paul Harrison
2 (raise)
4 (bet $8)
15 (call)
21 (call)
30 (call)
58 (get it quietly)
“As Villain tends to reraise on the flop, I would just flat call my top pair. The turn doesn’t worry me so I will call him here as if I’m ahead on the flop, I should still be good now. Little changes on the turn, so when he pushes I know I’m still good as the river doesn’t look as though it could improve his hand so I can call.”
Yellow Belt Kyle Milne:
2 (raise)
4 (bet $8)
15 (call)
21 (call)
30 (call)
58 (get it quietly)
“The reasoning behind my play was to be conditionally committed on the turn providing no over cards hit the board, and when the two fell it was not a scare card as such as we were already past the commitment threshold. Our aim was to be left with one pot sized bet on the river.
He is known for raising continuation bets, so it is an automatic call against this type of opponent. The only cards that are beating us are overpairs (which he would have raised for value preflop) and flopped sets which is just a cooler.(or two pair which is very unlikely).
In reality, the turn changes nothing. One again, we don’t really want to raise because he only plays back with better hands and we are wanting value from worse, and we don’t want him folding those hands.
The river also does nothing and so when he shoves we can narrow his hand down to a full house or complete air. Since we already said we weren’t scared about the full house, we can make the call. He turned over A-J of diamonds which was exactly what we predicted to be part of his bluffing range.”
Yellow Belt Simon Shaw:
2 (raise)
4 (bet $8)
15 (call)
21 (call)
30 (call)
59 (get it loudly)
“This is a pretty standard hand in my opinion. Great flop to continuation bet and a great flop for Villain to play back on given Hero's high continuation bet percentage Reraising Villain here doesn't achieve much except folding out worse so call is the only thing to do. The only time I'd reraise the flop would be if I know Villain can spaz out with worse.
The turn blanks, so we call again. River blanks and now Villain is completely polarised when he shoves. From a game theory perspective we have to call here since we are at the top of our range but in reality we are being offered a decent price and there's nothing else we can do but call.
Hero then drops a few 'lols' in the chatbox and insta-quits.”
Kevin Williams: 2 (raise), 4 (bet $8), 15 (call), 21 (call), 30 (call), 58 (get it quietly)
Ben Pooley: 2 (raise), 4 (bet $8), 15 (call), 21 (call), 30 (call), 58 (get it quietly)
Gavin Hall: 2 (raise), 4 (bet $8), 15 (call), 21 (call), 30 (call), 58 (get it quietly)
Andrienna Nutt #1: 2 (raise), 4 (bet $8), 15 (call), 21 (call), 29 (fold)
Andy Brisland: 2 (raise), 3 (check), 8 (raise to $34), 13 (call)
Andrienna Nutt #2: 2 (raise), 4 (bet $8), 15 (call), 24 (all in)
Join us next week for another edition of The Poker Tree.