Continued from Part Three...
In the fourth part of our series on Isildur, the pro's look at the affect the last few months have had on high stakes pro Tom Dwan, and ask if he can recover from what was surely a morale and bankroll crushing defeat. Today, Jesse May expresses his thoughts having spent much time watching and speaking to the online prodigy that is durrrr.
Last Man Standing
Contrary to popular belief, the biggest casualty of the Isildur tornado was not Isildur, but Tom Dwan. More commonly referred to by his online moniker, durrrr was swept away by the initial winds, and within just a few days became the first victim, the first of the ‘big guys’ to topple at the hands of the Swede. He was, in essence, the fall guy, the first domino, and it was these epic encounters that turned Isildur into a media sensation.
If Isildur had demolished a less high profile player, then the media frenzy would have been little more than a murmur. However, durrrr’s reputation preceded him. He had been labeled an online titan, a poker prodigy, and a genuine contender for the best poker player on the planet. Then, in one fell swoop, everything changed: durrrr’s bankroll had taken a hit to the tune of $5,518,393 (according to PokerTableRatings.com), his morale had been crushed, and his once fans started doubting his ability, whilst his previous critics now wore a smile wider than the equator. The impact on durrrr was so dramatic that the spotlight lay as heavily on him as it did on Isildur.
Jesse May says...
In some ways this story has been more about Tom Dwan than anybody else, because durrrr is the one who has raised the biggest unanswered question about himself. A question that was answered for sure is the one about how much money did Tom Dwan have. The answer, clearly, not enough for the stakes he was playing.
For every question about Isildur, there was one about durrrrr, and the size of his bankroll is the one that seems to surface the most. In fact, with many, it became an obsession. Perhaps people experience a perverse, sadistic satisfaction in knowing someone has gone bust, or thereabouts, or maybe it’s simply a fascination of the gargantuan figures being discussed, but either way there’s a Walter Mitty inside all of us that likes to think that durrrr was putting his entire ‘roll on the line, that he was crazy enough to gamble every cent he owned in one game. We love to hear that someone s degenerate to the point of risking millions. The worrying things is, durrrrr might just be that sick.
Luke Schwartz says…
There are so few players who can just dip into their pocket and casually pull up a million to play with, maybe just Ivey and Antonius. The truth is that at the nosebleed stakes, barely anyone is actually playing within their means, hardly anyone actually has the ‘roll to play stakes as high as they do without worrying about going bust. I don’t know exactly what durrrr’s ‘roll was when he started playing Isildur, but by the time they were done, I’m pretty sure he’d done most of it.
Roland De Wolfe says...
I think that they play so big that there are always going to be casualties at these stakes. It's almost like people want to go broke.
In a recent interview with Black Belt Poker, Patrik Antonius claimed that after playing the durrrr Challenge for a while now, he was unsure that 50,000 hands was actually enough for variance to even itself out and for the best player to be unveiled. If true, this would suggest that for the majority of players playing outside of their bankroll, the nosebleed stakes are not an effective way of showing who is or isn’t the best poker player, but rather who runs the best in the big hands and who has the ‘roll to survive them. The highest level then becomes little more than an avenue for spinning up a fortune in the hope that you avoid that bad session, that $5.5 million losing session that might be just around the corner. One day durrrr could have 10 million, the next he could be broke. How can we possibly tell who the best players are when the swings are so fierce?
Of course, with playing the highest stakes available comes a number of cushions that can soften the inevitable fall. The first is notoriety and the chance to raise your profile, something that can truly come to your aid if your back’s ever against the wall. Roland De Wolfe, for example, is acutely aware of the importance of his profile, and is constantly promoting himself in order to give himself some outs, a safety net if his account does read zero one day. Even a busto durrrr will receive an invitation to a big TV comp, the Premier League or the Poker Million – capture one of those titles and you’re back in the game.
What also accompanies fame is the faith of others, and the belief that if you were good enough to get there in the first place, then you’re good enough to get back. With a track record of playing and beating the best, even if you didn’t quite have the last laugh, there will always be ‘big wigs’ who are willing to back you, to provide you a bankroll with which to rebuild your own. Investment is a form of gambling, and in a world full of degenerate gamblers, finding an investor if you’re a recognised pro isn’t too tough a task. After all, there’s always somebody running well and with money to risk.
Roland De Wolfe says…
I don't know what durrrr's bankroll is. It's definitely taken a sizable chunk, but I don't know what share of his own action he has. You know, he's always going to get staked. You always hear talk, but if you just slice your way through it, I don't think he's in any trouble, but who knows, you can't look into other people's pockets.
What most will consider to be durrrr’s saving grace, however, is not his ability to garner backing, but the timing of his Full Tilt Poker sponsorship. It had long been on the cards that durrrr would become a member of Full Tilt Poker, not just as a Red Pro, but a celebrated member of Team Full Tilt where he’d stand alongside the likes of Phil Ivey, John Juanda and Jennifer Harman, but for some reason or another, a deal was never quite agreed. Now that he’s put pen to paper, it is widely believed that he is guaranteed millions a year just for being a part of Team Full Tilt - whether that be in the form of wages, a percentage in the company, or whatever - regardless of his progress at the table (ie. a busted bankroll or $5.5 million losing session). Therefore, even if he does empty his account, he has sewn up enough income and security from sponsorship that he doesn’t need to worry about sleeping on the street for the foreseeable future.
Luke Schwartz says...
He's so lucky that he got that Full Tilt deal when he did. He's meant to be broke, but now he's guaranteed like two mil a year or something. If it weren’t for that he'd just be left rolling his eyes for the rest of his life, but Full Tilt have made him. So fucking lucky it's unbelievable.
Ben Grundy says…
He has plenty of people that would back him if his bankroll runs low. As for his Full Tilt sponsorship, I can only guess its value, but I'd take a stab that it’s worth between $500,000 and $1 million a year. It’s hardly a tough life with that behind him.
It’s one thing to say that if durrrr was bust, that he could find funds from somewhere, be it his own or someone else’s, but it’s another to say that he can then use that money to once again become a regular at the nosebleed stakes. However, the common consensus seems to be that durrrr is talented enough to do just that, and that his recent demise was a one-off and merely an example of the high variance and emphatic swings that one can experience at such high stakes. When I spoke to durrrr at the Live Million Dollar Challenge in Mayfair, I sensed that he was continuing to play Isildur not because he couldn’t leave the game, but rather because he genuinely believed that, in the long run, he could get the better of his opponent. Unfortunately, the swings didn’t necessarily guarantee that a long run existed.
Sida Yuen says...
Durrrr is definitely still one of the top three players in the world at the moment at No Limit Hold’em, and it’s proven through the last four or five years of his success. When two top class players play six tables for long sessions during an intensely short period of time, there will be action and there will be swings, and if one of them doesn't play their A game for even the shortest amount of time, they could lose a lot of money. I think durrrr will definitely bounce back, he's already been seen dropping back down to $25/50 and $50/100 grinding back his ‘roll, and already made back some of those losses.
Whether durrrr can make a full ‘comeback’ or not is just as dependent on his mentality as his skillset. I fully believe that if he had to, he could start right from the bottom and work his way back up from just a few nickels. Durrrr is a freak of nature, he’s not like you and me. If I lost most of my ‘roll in a day, I’m not sure I could start from the bottom. And even if I did, I doubt I’d be able to play my best game. But durrrr’s a one-of-a-kind, he can achieve things that most of us can’t, and it’s this capacity to channel those natural abilities that make him such an impressive entity.
Jesse May says…
I spent three days with Dwan in the middle of this saga, three days in London when he was buried against Isildur and obviously worried about the stakes he was committing, three days when he played on the Internet all night and then played days in the heads-up cash game being filmed for TV.
First off, I was as impressed by Dwan’s mental toughness as I have ever been with any poker player. His yawning and his low boiling point are not an act. He has a philosophy that on one hand decrees that the point of poker is to make money, pure and simple, and on the other hand that the way to achieve that goal is to play the game the best way he knows how at all times. His ability to detach himself from the situation and make the proper play no matter what the pressure and stakes is nearly inhuman. He is a cool rider who has absolutely no fear when it comes to trusting his judgment for marginal execution. And the way he could lose a million dollars from what had to be a very ropey tank playing all night, and then come in on no sleep and never lose his temper, not once, to the what can be infuriatingly silly demands of television production, were rather inhuman.
In the month of November alone, durrrr managed to lose an earth-shattering $6,373,785.27. Despite suffering what would be a major setback to anyone, durrrr didn’t despair, he didn’t panic, rather he dropped down a level or two, knuckled down and began clawing his way back. Since then, he’s won over $2.2 million and has managed to recover over 35 percent of his losses! To me, this ability to suffer an emphatic loss and still have the grit and determination to strike back is what truly makes a poker player. Anyone can run well enough to spin nothing into something, but how many of them actually hold onto it? What’s more, when they do crash and burn, how many can actually pick themselves up again and learn from their mistakes? There’s a stark difference between being a good poker player, and a talented one, but I think durrrr is both.
Ben Grundy says...
Durrrr is obviously a top player. He seems to struggle in Pot Limit Omaha and hardly gets any action at No Limit Hold'em. Most of the time though he is playing the best players in the world, and he's beating Antonius heads-up over a decent hand sample, so he can't be too bad.
Roland De Wolfe says…
Durrrr won't disappear, he'll be around. He's so impressive in terms of the way he thinks about the game. He's got some very rich friends, both in and outside of poker who will always see him as a good proposition for staking.
Nik Persaud says...
Durrrr is a great player and we should not just look at results in short-term periods (which the press like to make a big deal of), but the history and future of the player. Durrrr's respect from his peers comes from his being a very smart young man, who in truth helped develop a lot of key concepts in how the game was played/considered. He is still young and a very hard worker and I see him making a big impact on the game for a long, long time (if he himself is motivated enough to do so).
Jesse May…
I have a tremendous amount of admiration for Tom Dwan. When you see the world bringing every force of negativity and pressure to bear on one person in one instant, you see deep into him as a person. Poker throws that up sometimes and Dwan threw it back with a force field of laid back character. Durrrr’s problem, right now, is his ego.
As Phil Hellmuth once said, if you call yourself the best poker player in the world and you are the best poker player in the world, then do you really have an ego? Right now, Tom is wrestling with this dilemma. Whether or not Tom Dwan can, or will, beat Isildur in the long run at No Limit Hold’em is something that may be debated, and the more it’s debated the less important it will be. What is most likely is that by the time the two do meet to sort it out again there will be somebody new around that is even more important. The question that durrrr now has to wrestle with is the ultimate question about his place in the world: can he live in a world where he may not be the best poker player in it? I say that if his answer is yes then he can be the best. If his answer is no, then he never will be.
People will put forth ideas that Tom Dwan is a fraud, that all his money really came in soft games against Guy Laliberte, that he’s not really that good, that the whole thing was a series of lucky coincidences propelling his rise to the top. I will never give credit to those claims. Dwan is undoubtedly one of the most prodigious poker talents of his time and one of the most exciting players I’ve ever watched. He will be back at the top again as sure as silk is comfortable. But he will wrestle with his ego in the manner of Phil Hellmuth until he can live in place where a game can be turned down if the conditions aren’t right. Isildur is not durrrr’s nemesis; durrrr’s nemesis is currently himself.
I commenced this article by referring to durrrr as a “bigger casualty than Isildur”. However, and although he lost more than Isildur over those electrifying few weeks, if I had to bet on which of the two will still be standing in a few years time, it would be durrrr. I don’t deny Isildur’s talent, but to be a successful poker player at the nosebleed stakes requires a skin of leather, and a mental fortitude that enables you to pick yourself up from a defeat and come back twice as strong. In my mind, Isildur is unproven in this sense. Yes, he has shown that he is a genius of sorts, fearless beyond belief, and capable of taking on and beating the best, but if he can’t absorb a hit, learn from his mistakes and return with a fresh approach, he’s always going to be part of a cycle of spinning it up, and then going bust. Is durrrr better than Isildur? Who knows? Maybe so. But then again, if you’re not the last man standing, then talent’s not worth a lick.
Read Part Five...
To read previous articles and hear more from pro's such as Ben Grundy, Richard Ashby and Nik Persaud, also see:
Isildur: A Pro's Perspective - Part One: A Hero Arrives
Isildur: A Pro's Perspective - Part Two: Snakes & Ladders
Isildur: A Pro's Perspective - Part Three: Battle of Hastings