Continued from Part Two...
Suited Connectors
These type of hands are subject to pretty much the same analysis as the pocket pairs, with a few very key differences. I’m not going to take you through another full example, but here are just a few simple numbers:
Odds of flopping a made hand with suited connectors (two pair or better): 17/1
Odds of flopping a combo-draw (12+ outs vs. an overpair): 13/1
Odds of flopping a regular flush draw or open-ended straight draw: 6.5/1
Combined, we can expect to hit a ‘big hand’ that we are happy to get it in with, that is a made hand or combo draw, one time in eight – very close to our chances of flopping a set. This however is where our first big difference arises. When we do flop a set, our hand usually has around 90% equity in the pot versus almost any hand. When we flop most of these ‘big hands’ however we often still need to improve and our equity stands at an average of only 66% versus an over pair. 1 time in 7.5 we flop our regular draws and hold around 33% equity in the pot (assuming we see the river). Therefore, around 1 time in 4 we flop a hand we wish to continue with, but for only half of those is it immediately +EV to just get our stacks in. The other half we still need to play poker.
Now let’s look at those pots where you still need to play poker. Sets have the advantage of being almost invisible. Even in the instances above where we suggested opponents might become ‘suspicious’, we still have a very disguised hand. Flushes ain’t so subtle. Any worries we had about extracting value from our opponents after set mining is multiplied here. When drawing to an obvious hand we need to rely almost entirely on actual pot odds. We must also acknowledge that especially with flushes, we rarely hold the nuts, so again a non-negligible amount of the time we hit our hand and lose. What I am trying to get across is that calling with these hands for implied odds alone is almost entirely unprofitable. Extracting implied value from these hands requires us to be a little bit cleverer.
Despite many players doing it today, a pre-flop raiser is still regularly not put on a suited connector by their opponent. When we raise with these hands we can use implied odds as our ‘back-up plan’ for the pot. The majority of the time we are going to take the pot down preflop, or with a continuation bet. Of the times this doesn’t work however, 25 percent will still offer us a favourable flop. For our bigger hands we are of course glad of the action, and for our regular draws that ‘playing poker’ we were talking about is made easier by us having the initiative in the pot. We can therefore now look at our opponent’s stack and consider our implied odds as we have managed to at least partially disguise our hand. We have also hopefully given ourselves enough chances to win the pot without showdown to make up for the times we are not paid off. This is when we can got back to our spectrum of implied profitability and decide whether or not to play these hands against our likely opponents.
With both pocket pairs and suited connectors we constantly need to be working to increase our chances of being paid with a big hand. This extends beyond the times we are actually playing a hand for implied value. Mixing up our preflop play can work wonders in sewing seeds of doubt in opponents’ minds about our possible holdings. Taking an opportunity to four-bet, for example, when you suspect a three-bettor is stealing can be a great way to not only take down a nice pot, but can also work out well when you are forced to showdown a small pocket pair. Next time you flat call a standard open in position, it won’t be as easy to put you on the type of hand you just played so aggressively.
Similarly, three-betting serial openers, open raising instead of limping, and any moves that work to both win the pot more often and disguise our hand should be well integrated into our play. Again, before you come back to me complaining that reshoving every third time you get dealt pocket deuces isn’t working out for you, you need to pick these spots well. If we do this too often we’ll end up in a spot where we’re actually never playing a hand for its implied odds. We also need to be aware of how useful creating a certain image will be, like ascertaining how observant the other players are, or how soon we will be moved in a tournament.
I’m not here to scare you away from playing hands with implied odds. Eliminating pairs and suited connectors from your game would be a serious leak. Stacking people with these hands, particularly in cash games, is a big part of profitable poker and plus, I would never want to rob you of that 007 feeling. What I want to do is allow you to apply implied odds correctly, so that you are not constantly calling off your money waiting for that miracle flop which invariable seems to have ‘Please Fold’ encoded in it when it arrives. Think clear, play well, and happy stacking!
If you have any questions about this topic, then please feel free to leave any feedback in the comments box below.