The Hand Exchange: Holden on Blatchly – Part Two
24 May 2009
It's Steve Holden's turn to play critic as he analyses a hand Neil Blatchly played in the APAT Welsh Amateur Championship in Cardiff.
BBP Grader Neil Blatchly

Continued from Part One...

Participants:

(1) Steve Holden – a professional player of approximately two years from Birmingham in the West Midlands. Steve is a former GCBPT champion having won the Nottingham leg.
(2) Neil Blatchly – Neil is a live tournament player from Leicester, and the only man to have won both a GCBPT and APAT title.

Part Two - Neil’s Hand:

History: It was the APAT Welsh Amateur Championship in Cardiff, a £75 No Limit Hold’em freezeout with a mixed field. The blinds were at 100/200. Out of a field of 194, Neil managed to find a table with good friend Rupinder Bedi. In tournaments they have an agreement that they will “just play each other”. Rupinder knows that Neil can call light and is capable of bluffing against him. Both players had a stack of around 11 to 12,000 from an initial starting point of 10,000. The table was relatively passive with little creativity on display.

The Hand: Rupinder opened the action with a raise of 550 from seat three and Neil flat called on the button with 4-3 of hearts. The flop came down Qd-8c-4s and Rupinder made a continuation bet of 775. Neil decided to flat call. Both players checked the eight of spades turn before Rupinder led for 1,625 on the two of hearts river. The action was on Neil with bottom pair.

Steve’s Analysis:

Playing against friends: It’s always difficult when you’re up against friends, players you have a percentage invested in, and even partners. My own policy that I tell them is: “Play your cards.” I’d rather them have my chips than anyone else and visa versa. It seems as though Neil and Rupinder have the same policy and this can only be good for the game.

Preflop: Rupinder’s range preflop from this position if it’s a passive table would very likely be of the same range as my own. I like suited connectors for flopping two pair or a straight draw although with a 4-3 suited I wouldn’t be barrelling any flush draws, just electing to call. Considering the size of the preflop raise, I would always call here, especially because I am in position. If it were against one of the other passive players, I would elect to three-bet preflop, again disguising my holding.

Flop: Regardless of what hits the flop here, I’m expecting a continuation bet from Rupinder for around 50 percent of the pot (1,400) as he’s out of position and will be looking for information from me. Having caught bottom pair and still not really able to put Rupinder on a hand, I would never consider raising here; my thinking is that I’m probably ahead but I’m also behind to a wide enough range to want to control the pot at this stage and try and improve on my holding. So, by electing to flat call, I maintain position and control the pot. Neil’s call here is standard.

Turn: This check on the turn from Rupinder could be disguising trips or even a house, but he’s more likely to be holding something like Q-Q with the early position raise rather than, say, A-8. He could also have missed everything with A-K, A-J type hands. You can control the pot here by checking it down to fifth street or, and this is my preference, you could show some strength and bet out around 2,100. Neil’s check on the turn, although controlling the pot, at this point gives off a weak signal to Rupinder, who, if he’s holding ‘air’, will probably fire on the river regardless. I think betting here shows that you like your hand but you’re now worried by the flush draw.

River: With this bet, Rupinder is giving me odds of almost 3:1 to make the call. Well, I knew the bet would be coming when I checked the turn back to him. He could have complete air and missed with A-K, J-T, T-9, 7-6 or 6-5 suited connectors, or he could have the dog’s bollocks with 8-8 or Q-Q and value betting. There’s also the possibility that he led out with a pocket pair preflop and the weak return check on the turn gives his hand extra strength.

The two of hearts on the river certainly wont have improved anyone’s hand and therefore returns me to my thinking on fourth street. For me, to reraise at this point as a bluff because I think I’m behind would be a no no. The way the hand has played out is very obscure.

We called the bet on the flop and the turn card helped us to some degree. I would therefore call on the river as I don’t see the turn or river helping Rupinder more than they helped me

Neil’s Analysis:

Playing with friends: Rupinder and I always have an agreement to play against each other properly. We have spent so many hours playing poker with each other that we know each other’s game very well indeed and therefore it’s best that we just play the hand as if it were anyone else at the table.

Preflop: Rupinder had been quite active and he is one of these players that likes to raise preflop with a wide range of hands to around 2.2 to 2.7 times the big blind. I know his range here is incredibly big and although I’m not winning with 4-3 suited, it has an awful lot of potential.  When Rupinder raises, I could three-bet with position as this would get him to put down a lot of his opening range. However, looking around the table, the ability and creativity wasn’t of a great strength and therefore there should be easier ways of increasing my stack size rather than having to bluff against one of the best players in the field.

Flop: Before the flop comes down I know Rupinder will bet whatever hits. His normal continuation bet is anywhere from half the pot to three quarters and knowing this is virtually always coming already gives me some implied odds. When I connect with the flop, albeit only third pair, there is a good chance I’m now ahead. Again, however, I don’t really want to create a huge pot with a marginal holding. When I call the flop it either tells Rupinder that I have some part of it or that I wasn’t winning preflop in the first place. Seeing as this flop is very dry there is very little chance that I’m floating here or drawing to something obscure.

Turn: When the board pairs on the turn and Rupinder checks to me I’m pretty certain I now have the best hand and have to decide how to make the best of the situation from here. I personally cut down his range after this check to something like A-K, A-J, A-T or a drawing hand of J-T or J-9. Normally I would expect a player that has now filled a full house here to check but I don’t think that anyone with a flopped set would lead, and certainly not at this standard. Knowing how Rupinder plays is a great help in this situation.

After working out I have the best hand I then have to extract the most value I possibly can. If I lead out then I don’t think I’m getting a call from anything I’m beating although I may get a hand like 5-5, 6-6, 7-7 or 9-9 to fold. I decided to check with the intention of calling any bet on the river so long as a pretty safe card arrives. When I check behind on the turn I also expect Rupinder to then fire out whatever card comes down.

River: With the river coming a deuce, if I had the best hand on the flop then I certainly still do now. Knowing how he likes to value bet with a bigger bet and a tell I have on him, I make the call with bottom pair. 

Conclusion: Obviously looking back things are so much easier but I think the hand was a pretty standard one. Rupinder is easily capable of firing on the turn as well and after talking about it at the bar he thinks he should have led for a second time on the turn. If he had I would have had great difficulty with finding a second call.

From my point of view, I think three-betting preflop would have been wrong given the tournament dynamics and the field that I was in. On another day then maybe the three-bet would be correct in position, but hopefully our opponent wont be holding a big hand when we do.

The Reveal: Neil made the call. Rupinder flipped over A-K and Neil scooped the pot with his bottom pair.

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