Level One - Julian Thew & Surinder Sunar
Level Two - Julian Thew & Surinder Sunar

History: You’ve reached level three in the London GUKPT. You moved to a new table two orbits ago with a stack of 16,000. You recognise a couple of faces on your table, including neighbour James Akenhead who has 17,500. Since your arrival, Akenhead has been playing aggressive preflop and has been met with little, if no resistance, most hands being taken with a continuation bet on the flop. You have played just a couple of hands, but neither went further than the flop.

The blinds are 75/150 and you are in the cut-off.

The action folds around to Akenhead who makes it 425 to play.
You look down at Kd-Jd.

What’s your move? Is our decision player dependent here?

James says:

“Against a strong player like James I like would flat call in position with a hand like this. Post-flop I don’t think he will go crazy out of position and most of the time the hand will be quite simple to play. Also K-J of diamonds is the type of hand you could win a big pot with, even against a strong player.

This decision is player dependant and against a weaker player I am more likely to flat call because I can outplay them post-flop a lot more and am more likely to get the full value of my hand if I really connect with the board, especially because the stacks are still quite deep at this stage in the tournament.

Occasionally I like to three-bet in position with a hand like this as well. It works best against average players and I do this because I get to play a bigger pot in position. It puts a lot of pressure on them, often getting them to fold a better hand post-flop. Also, it gives us more control in the pot.”

Jerome says:

“James playing aggressively? Perish the thought! I’m almost never three-betting James here with K-J suited - easy call. Why waste a pretty hand that flops well? I’d prefer to three-bet with 7-4 suited or T-9 off-suit because I can let them go easier to a four-bet. A small reraise to reclaim the initiative is an option, but striving to play big pots with probably the best (other) player at the table is foolhardy. Folding is bad, adding the usual provisos about not going broke with top pair. I’d throw in more raises against feebs but don’t think I could find a fold even against Rocky Marciano (crack ‘em one time!)”

You call.
The button and both blinds fold.

Flop: Ad-Jc-6d

Akenhead leads for 725 into a pot of 1,075.

What’s your move? How often do aggressive players tend to continue bet in the early stages of a GUKPT main event?

James says:

“This is obviously a huge flop for our hand. However, the value in our hand is on the flop and I’m always reraising James here to around 2,200. Also, I’m happy to play for stacks as we’re almost coin flipping against even a set, but we crush hands like Q-T of diamonds which I think James would put in another raise with.

I guess if they are aggressive players they will continuation bet a lot, especially on dry flops and heads-up pots.”

Jerome says:

“Aggressive is too broad a concept for doing much explanatory work. James will lead on this board at least 90 percent of the time unless a tell suggests otherwise. So will nearly everyone else; the majority of tournament players, of all stripes, are conditioned to continuation bet heads-up on an ace high board. Fit-or-fold types are a dying breed, which is a pity.

I’d fist pump and do the ‘ship it’ dance, then remember that this isn’t online and try and recover my poise. Good thing James was too busy flirting with the dealer to notice. Great flop obviously, but tough to be in good shape if we get all in at this stage. I can’t see James going broke with A-K/A-Q on this flop - against A-6 and above we have between 30 and 40 percent equity; if he has precisely Q-T of diamonds (a man can dream) we’d have a decent shot at getting our money in as an 80/20 favourite. If we raise to 2,000 and he makes it 7,000, shoving/folding are close (both better than calling), but it’s yuk all round. 

I prefer calling here and letting the hand develop in position. It serves as pot control when we’re up against A-6 and above. If we’re winning currently (versus air, pocket pairs, J-x) then there aren’t many cards that hurt us and raising lets James off the hook. He’ll probably shut down but you never know. Calling also masks the strength of our hand - I do a lot more calling than raising, so it’s important to have strong hands in my calling mix.

If we turn the flush, we obviously bet if checked to, and mix up raising and calling (more raises) when James bets the turn. Same with a jack or king, although now I’m mostly calling if he bets again (and sometimes checking back the king). If the turn is a brick and he bets again I’m almost always just calling; if checked to, usually check back. If the turn is an ace, it’s a judgement call (what isn’t?), but I’d probably try to get to a cheap showdown.

Raising has the advantages of giving him a hard time if he has A-x (or K-K/Q-Q) by representing a big hand, building the pot before we (ahem) hit and finally helping to define the situation (i.e. his range) by seeing what he does.”

But for me it’s a call.”

You raise to 2,075
Akenhead calls after a brief pause.
There is 5,225 in the pot. Your stack is 13,500. Akenhead has 15,000

Turn: 2c

Akenhead checks.

What’s your move? How often is second pair ahead here and is the turn a good card?

James says:

“This is a tough spot. To reraise him on that flop the only made hands that we can have is a set or A-J. A-6 is a fold preflop. This leaves a lot of bluffs and draws in our range and James is well aware of this. I think I’m too worried that we could get check-raised off our hand to bet and I know James is capable of doing this with just an ace. I don’t like to make a bet that will commit us to the hand like 5,000 plus because I think this can be exploited by a strong player like him. Also there are a lot of good rivers we can see.

Second pair could be ahead here some of the time and if the river is a brick I would be happy with a cheap showdown, but I’m not that keen in going to war with it against a strong player and would prefer to wait for a better spot instead of making some hero call.

The turn is a bad card, it leaves us with a difficult decision and makes it harder to get paid off if we make our flush on the river. I would consider good turn cards to be diamonds and jacks. Kings wouldn’t be too bad either.”

Jerome says:

“James’ call lets us narrow his range: most of the air and pocket pairs have gone (stubborn Q-Q/K-K call possible but unlikely); we’re left with mostly A-x hands. A-J+ (A-6+?) is possible but would have usually reraised us out of position on a flushing board. A flush draw fits the action, but isn’t likely given that we know where four of the diamonds are. So second pair is rarely ahead here.

The standard line is to check behind: our raise on the flop has bought us a free card. The main problem with checking behind is what it does to our range: given the board texture, strong hands should be looking to extract value from big aces and charge draws to get there. Our range now shrinks to flush draws and A-x hands that are after a cheap showdown. We’re going to be hard-pressed to get anything out of James if the diamond comes.

If we could see his hand, we’d bet small versus a flush draw to keep James in, check back versus air to let him bluff the river, and against his most likely holding, A-x? We must weigh up the likelihood of shifting him off A-K by double barrelling against the risk of getting check raised all in.

With one card to come we’re 18 percent against a set and 32 percent against A-Q, if James were to make a soul read. If we bet the pot then we’re getting 3:1 on his shove, so pot odds wise it’s marginal, but I’d probably gamble once that involved. If we bet smaller on the turn then we get roughly 2:1 on his shove so it becomes a fold. Betting big shouldn’t look weak – there ís a flush draw to protect against after all! Raising the flop and firing the turn is a strong line but not for the faint-hearted.”

You check behind.

River = 2s

Akenhead leads for 4,250.

What’s your move? Is there any justification in moving all in and turning our hand into a bluff?

James says:

“My move here would be read dependant. James’ line in the hand isn’t that strong and we are pretty much representing a missed flush draw. However, I’m still hesitant to call off such a large amount of chips and part of me wants to just leave the chips we have in the pot and move onto the next hand. James could be making a sick value bet with A-Q, etc. I’m probably folding here if I haven’t picked up any reads.

I think in this spot a call is better than a shove. By checking the turn it pretty much throws away all credibility of us having a strong hand and I think we would get looked up by an ace. Shoving just unnecessarily risks chips because he’s calling with anything that beats us and folding anything worse.”

Jerome says:

“Right hand chips over line; left hand tap the table - that ís my default river line, but in this case even I can’t find a call. Our read as the hand progressed is that most of the time he has at least an ace. Once in a while James will turn over a lower flush draw or pure nothing, but not 4/13 times. The pot odds aren’t great, but pot odds, shmot shmodds - the amount of bad calls justified with those magic words, “I was getting 2:1.” More importantly, we’re early in the tournament, so why risk losing a chunk (and thus steaming) on a hero play? Against someone like James the temptation to catch him in the act can be palpable, but good loose-aggressive players usually have it when the serious money goes in. Pass.

The all-in bluff here is horrible. It makes no sense - what are we representing? If you think he’s bluffing, call. If not, don’t waste your tournament trying to make him fold A-K. Anyone who is good enough to know not to go broke with top pair top kicker is probably also good enough to wonder about our check on the turn.”