Level One - Julian Thew & Surinder Sunar
Level Two - Julian Thew & Surinder Sunar
Level Three - Jerome Bradpiece & James Mitchell
History: After a shaky last level, you’ve battled your way to 21,675, eliminating a short stack with A-K versus A-Q all in preflop. Recently, you have been more active and are seeing a lot of flops. The villain is not a circuit regular, but isn’t afraid to play hands. He has been seen to raise a wide range when in late position, but his preflop play tends to be more formulaic when in early position. Villian has 17,100
The blinds are 100/200 and you are in the big blind.
Villian raises to 650 from UTG+1
You look down at Td-Ts
What’s your move? Is this ever a reraising hand in these seating positions?
James says:
“I like to call in these spots. It allows us to keep our hand under-represented and tens is a decent hand to play out of position. Also, I like to keep pots smaller out of position if I can.
I don’t think it is a big mistake to reraise here. In fact you probably win the pot a lot more often playing it this way and you might quickly find out if you are behind. Also, if the villain is capable of raising a wide range in late position, tens is probably ahead of his UTG+1 opening range. However, playing it this way could lead to you being outplayed and makes it harder to catch bluffs because the pot will be bigger, requiring you to risk a large percentage of your stack trying to make a good call.”
Jerome says:
I’d call. This isn’t really a hand I like to reraise with here.
You call.
Flop: 3d-7d-8d
There is 1,400 in the pot. You have 21,025; he has 16,450.
What’s your move? How often do you expect to be ahead here?
James says:
“We have a good hand but it can’t take much heat. I am planning on check-calling. If we raise, most of the hands we beat will fold and the ones that beat us will call, as well as strong flush draws like Ad-Jh. We aren’t even much of a favourite against a hand like this and we may end up being played off our hand.
I expect to be ahead a decent amount of the time here and hopefully when we are behind our flush draw is live. Occasionally we will be drawing to runner runner or two outs, but this is just another reason why we are only flat calling. The only danger of doing this is letting a hand that would fold to a check-raise get there. However, most of these hands will only have four or two outs anyway so the reward outweighs the risk.”
Jerome says:
“I expect to be ahead most of the time and only losing to sets, flushes, overpairs and 8-7 suited. We’re only in really bad shape against flushes and overpairs with a diamond, but any overcard(s) plus big diamond is flipping and not going anywhere in a hurry. Looking ahead, my general thinking is to try and win a small pot so I check, planning to call while exuding strength.”
You check.
Villain bets 1,000.
You call.
Turn: 9s
There is 3,400 in the pot. You have 20,025; he has 15,450.
What’s your move? Are there trends/tells with people who bet a straight 1,000 (single chip) instead of something like 1,175?
James says:
“I’m checking and hoping for the villain to check behind. I don’t want to call another bet but I might feel like I have to if my hand is under-represented to such a level that the villain is value betting worse. Seeing as he has raised UTG+1 this probably won’t be a problem though and without other reads I am probably folding if he fires another barrel. I also think he would check a lot of hands behind on the turn for pot control.
I think straight 1,000 chip bets tend to be stronger hands, with the aim of only putting one chip in to look like a small, non-imposing bet. This isn’t an exact science though. I will almost always bet 1,025 or something like that just so I don’t have to say raise.”
Jerome says:
“The rainbow bet (one chip of each colour) is often a sign of strength, but without knowing the player it’s hard to know what his bet amounts mean. The trick is to look for deviations from his normal pattern and try and match that to strength/weakness.
Nice turn, likely six more outs if we need them. Checking let’s in a big diamond draw for free. Betting the turn is probably the way to go. Online, the donk lead will usually get punished but less live players will raise a strange looking bet (strange because you’re taking him out of the lead). Since the villain is formulaic/unknown, we can assume that he will rarely bluff raise us on the turn. This line charges a bigger flush draw a price and hopefully controls the size of the pot.
A check-raise feels a natural alternative but I’m going to hate folding my hand to a reraise, especially having picked up extra outs. Calling the raise/shoving is probably spewy though. Taking down the pot would be nice, but means we’ve probably got the best hand and draw anyway.
If he has a flush or an overpair with a diamond, we’re meant to lose chips here. Only a good read or lucky river can stop us doing a chunk. An overpair with no diamond will usually bet big to try and stop us drawing, unless scared/going for pot control.”
You check.
Villain bets 2,000.
You call.
There is 7,400 in the pot. You have 18,025; he has 13,450.
River = Ad
What’s your move? Can we read anything into his bet sizes?
James says:
“This looks like a good river card for us. There are only a few hands that would raise UTG+1 and contain a picture card diamond that would also fire two barrels in this hand. Those hands are pretty much J-J, Q-Q, K-K and K-Q of diamonds, so most of the time I would now expect us to be winning. It might occasionally be worth making a small defensive bet/value bet, but I prefer a check because it is hard for him to call with much worse and he might check the jack of diamonds behind.”
Jerome says:
“When we check-call two streets with three diamonds out (given these stack sizes), our most likely hand is a big diamond; with a made flush/set we’d have raised before now to build the pot and protect our hand from another diamond falling. So the villain should be afraid that the river has hit us.
Value bet? Hard to see us getting a call from a hand with a lower diamond. We have the fourth nuts, but if we check and he bets it’s just a bluff-catcher (on the reasonable assumption that he checks back lower flushes, sets, etc.).
How does a blocking bet compare to a check call? We probably save ourselves a bit versus the king or queen of diamonds, but cost ourselves versus the jack of diamonds (which I think will often check behind but usually call our bet), and stop the second-guessing on the river. The downside is that by betting we take away the chance for him to bluff but I don’t think the average villain is going to bluff the river very often and bluff-raise it close to never. If I’d bet the turn I’d probably block bet this river but here I’d most likely check and try to get to showdown.”
You check.
He stops to think for 30 seconds before betting 4,000.
What’s your move? Do you disapprove of how the hand has been played?
James says:
“I fold. If he has raised UTG+1 he would surely have some showdown value by now, so I don’t really see anyone bluffing in this spot very often. Also I don’t see why the villain would turn any kind of pair into a bluff, so unless he has fired three barrels with a hand like K-Q of hearts, you are always behind here.
I would have preferred a fold on the turn, even if it is a bit weak.”
Jerome says:
“Without reads, I think this is a fairly easy fold. Your average GUKPT player isn’t going to be turning a hand with some showdown potential into a bluff. So he’s either three-barrelling with nothing or he’s got it. If it’s the former, wp sir. Mostly it will be the latter. The one, two, four bet size progression is also usually the mark of a strong hand - probably kings or queens with the diamond.
It’s overly optimistic to think that we could have folded out many better hands by playing the hand more aggressively. In a live tournament, do not underestimate the information you can pick up by watching the villain as the hand goes on. If he’s flopped huge his heart is probably pounding and his chest heaving. Obviously we need to know what he considers huge, but I think this hand would be a lot easier to play live than on paper.”